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   ACUS03 KWNS 120810   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 120809   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0209 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe storms are expected from portions of   
   Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday   
   afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong to locally damaging wind   
   gusts are the most likely hazard.   
      
   ...OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley...   
      
   A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will be oriented from the   
   central High Plains to the Southern Rockies and northern Mexico   
   Saturday morning. The trough will progress eastward through the   
   period, extending from the Ozarks to the western Gulf Coast by early   
   Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low in the vicinity of the TX   
   Panhandle/western OK will modestly deepen as it shifts east toward   
   northern MS through the period and a trailing cold front advancing   
   southeast across the region. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow,   
   characterized by a 60-80 kt 500 mb jet, will overspread the region   
   by afternoon into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, a 30-40 kt   
   southerly low-level jet across OK/TX early in the period will   
   intensify with eastward extent after 00z. Forecast guidance depicts   
   40-50 kt 850mb southwesterly flow over AR/LA/MS/AL after dark.   
      
   Most guidance maintains surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low   
   60s F across the region, with perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints hugging   
   the immediate Gulf Coast. Midlevel cooling atop moistening low to   
   midlevels will support modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg   
   MLCAPE), especially over portions of TX/OK into western LA/southwest   
   AR. Instability is likely to wane somewhat with eastward extent   
   overnight as lapse rates weaken, nocturnal boundary layer   
   stabilization occurs, along with convection possibly outpacing   
   better moisture return.   
      
   Overall, at least some isolated risk for severe storms appears   
   possible across a broad area from central/southeast OK into   
   central/eastern TX, eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. Initial   
   thunderstorms development is likely to be cells/clusters near the   
   surface low and trailing cold front over OK/TX. As the low deepens   
   and front shifts east, increasing ascent and strengthening   
   southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will   
   favor a transition to a linear/QLCS mode. Strong gusts will likely   
   be the main hazard.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/12/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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