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   FOUS11 KWBC 111850   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   150 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 00Z Sun Feb 15 2026   
      
      
   ...Eastern Great Lakes & Central Appalachians...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Strong clipper system has exited into the eastern Atlantic and set   
   up a CAA regime through tonight with modest northwesterly flow and   
   850 mb temperatures as low as -15C. This will lead to continued   
   lake-enhanced/upslope snowfall into the favorable terrain from the   
   central Appalachians through the eastern Great Lakes and northern   
   New England ranges. However, this period of light to moderate snow   
   will be short-lived as high pressure builds in over the Mid-   
   Atlantic on Friday and the next weak clipper approaches New England   
   Friday night. WPC probabilities are low (<20%) for most regions   
   outside of the Laurel Highlands of southwest PA and areas downwind   
   of Lake Ontario.   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to the Central/Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A closed mid-level low positioned along the coast of northern CA   
   will generally fill in place as the accompanying longwave trough   
   elongates back to the southwest as secondary vorticity energy   
   rotates through the base ot approach southern CA and Baja by Friday   
   morning. This stalled evolution will result in a resurgence of an   
   upper level jet streak to sharpen downstream of this trough axis,   
   and while the secondary jet streak tonight into Thursday won't be   
   as powerful as the lead jet, it will maintain moisture advection   
   and broad LFQ diffluent ascent from CA into the Central Rockies.   
   The overlap of this jet streak with broad but persistent SW mid-   
   level flow also downstream of the primary trough axis will surge   
   moisture eastward as far as CO as reflected by NAEFS IVT   
   percentiles surging to above the 99th percentile in CO, with   
   prolonged anomalies above the 90th percentile back into the Great   
   Basin.   
      
   This plume of moisture will be primarily shed eastward within a WAA   
   plume, so snow levels will be generally 6000-7000 ft, lowering   
   slowly as the trough axis pivots eastward, but this will likely be   
   accompanied by rapid drying and a resulting cutoff of   
   precipitation. For this reason, the heaviest snowfall accumulations   
   are likely to be above 7000 ft (as high as 8000 ft in CO), with a   
   wane in precipitation expected as snow levels fall. WPC   
   probabilities D1 are high for at least 6 inches of snow in the   
   Uintas/Wasatch, the Tetons/Wind Rivers, and parts of the CO Rockies   
   including the Park Range. D2 probabilities compress and fall   
   rapidly, leading to just residual elevated probabilities above 20%   
   for 4+ inches in the CO Rockies. Most probabilities drop off below   
   20% after 00z tonight in Sierra given a majority of the   
   precipitation occurs prior to 00z tonight.   
      
      
   ...Southern Rockies...   
   Day 3...   
      
   The same secondary shortwave responsible for elongating the trough   
   over CA/Great Basin D2 will shed eastward Friday morning, moving   
   across southern CA/Baja Norte before closing off once again near   
   the Four Corners Friday evening. This evolution will promote   
   downstream ascent through impressive height falls paired with   
   modest jet streak amplification, leading to widespread deep layer   
   lift spreading into the Four Corners and southern Rockies Friday   
   into Saturday. The antecedent thermal structure will be modest for   
   snowfall (snow levels 8000-9000 ft), but increasing ascent within   
   a moistening column will expand precipitation and allow for snow,   
   which could be heavy, especially in the higher terrain of the   
   Sangre de Cristos, White Mountains, and San Juans, with some   
   dynamic cooling of the column possible later D3 as some deformation   
   develops across northern NM. Still a lot of uncertainty in the   
   exact evolution, but at this time WPC probabilities indicate a   
   moderate risk (40-70% chance) for at least 4 inches in the higher   
   terrain.   
      
      
   ...Washington Cascades...   
   Day 3...   
      
   By late day 2 into day 3, the next upper trough to approach the   
   West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska orients a weak axis of IVT (<300   
   kg/m/s) into the Cascades. Snow levels start out rather low and are   
   forecast to drop below 2,000 ft and below pass level. However,   
   precipitation amounts appear light enough to avoid heavier snow   
   amounts. Still, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are   
   high (>70%) in the Cascades above about 4,000 feet. Probabilities   
   for at least 4 inches of snow for Stevens and Snoqualmie passes   
   are between 20-40%.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Snell/Weiss   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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