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   ACUS03 KWNS 111930   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 111929   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0129 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF WEST TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to   
   marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours   
   across portions of western Texas.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Positively tilted upper troughing is expected to extend from the   
   western Great Basin southwestward into the east-central Pacific   
   Ocean early Friday morning. Two shortwave troughs are forecast to be   
   embedded within this larger troughing. The southernmost shortwave   
   trough expected to progress quickly eastward through the base of the   
   parent troughing before then pivoting more northeastward at it moves   
   into the eastern periphery of the troughing over northern Mexico.   
   The northernmost shortwave trough will be less progressive at it   
   moves across southern CA and the Lower CO Valley. Evolution of the   
   system will likely result in a relatively consolidated   
   southern-stream trough extending from the central High Plains   
   southwestward through northern Mexico by early Saturday.   
      
   ...West TX...   
   Downstream mass response will result in considerable airmass   
   modification across the southern Plains ahead of this system, with   
   upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching through much of west TX by   
   Friday evening. Afternoon temperatures will likely reach the low   
   70s, which will combine with the increasing moisture and cooling   
   mid-level temperatures to support modest buoyancy (i.e. 500 to 1000   
   J/kg of MLCAPE). The stronger forcing for ascent associated with the   
   approaching wave will likely lag peak heating slightly, but a few   
   surface-based storms are still possible amid weak capping and   
   low-level convergence. Supercell wind profiles, characterized by   
   modest low-level southeasterlies and moderate/strong southwesterlies   
   aloft, suggest that any storms that do develop could organize and   
   become severe. Large hail would be the primary hazard.   
      
   Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase as stronger ascent   
   associated attendant to the approaching wave and a strengthening   
   low-level jet arrives during the evening. Given anticipated   
   nocturnal stabilization, much of this activity will likely be   
   elevated, but strong deep-layer shear could still support updrafts   
   capable of isolated hail.   
      
   ...Northwest TX into OK...   
   Strengthening low-level southerly flow and moistening low levels   
   ahead of the approaching wave will contribute to increasing showers   
   and thunderstorms from northwest TX into much of OK Friday evening   
   and overnight. Poor mid-level lapse rates will result in weak   
   buoyancy, but moderate vertical shear could still contribute to a   
   few stronger updrafts capable of small hail. Severe coverage in this   
   area is currently expected to be less than 5%.   
      
   ..Mosier.. 02/11/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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