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   FOUS30 KWBC 111519   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1019 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Across Portions   
   of the Southern Plains on Friday...   
      
   A southern stream shortwave should be making its way into portions   
   of the Southern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. Precipitation is expected   
   to develop and spread quickly into the south-central states from   
   Friday into early Saturday morning. Given antecedent   
   conditions...rainfall from this system should generally be   
   beneficial. There is uncertainty with respect to how much the   
   southern stream shortwave phases with the northern stream as it   
   moves across the southern half of the country and there are still   
   some signals for there to be window of opportunity for training of   
   cells in a region with above moisture anomalies. As such...the   
   Marginal risk area was fairly broad to capture the range of   
   solutions shown by the suite of 00Z guidance.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gqOnoiZWSBbUOtIKm7hHNj6aboOWK7aujLla89_lD0O=   
   DI09MjcymY2llNVbKm5EZ79QnGGn-3ZYQ-ljY7HFRYB9fbc$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gqOnoiZWSBbUOtIKm7hHNj6aboOWK7aujLla89_lD0O=   
   DI09MjcymY2llNVbKm5EZ79QnGGn-3ZYQ-ljY7HFm3B93wQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4gqOnoiZWSBbUOtIKm7hHNj6aboOWK7aujLla89_lD0O=   
   DI09MjcymY2llNVbKm5EZ79QnGGn-3ZYQ-ljY7HFCkbBqyM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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