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   ACUS48 KWNS 110931   
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   SPC AC 110929   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Days 4-5/Sat-Sun -- Texas to the Southeast...   
      
   An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day   
   4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through   
   Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow   
   ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer   
   moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a   
   surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will   
   deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before   
   moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread   
   showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within   
   the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front,   
   first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday   
   night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and   
   Southeast on Sunday.   
      
   Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end   
   severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak   
   destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector.   
   However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is   
   unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement   
   of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt   
   trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary,   
   training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These   
   uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.   
      
   ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...   
      
   Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern   
   U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from   
   the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the   
   period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive   
   upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing   
   over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond   
   Monday.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/11/2026   
      
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