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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 110739   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 110738   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0138 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF WESTERN TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce small to   
   marginally severe hail Friday evening into the overnight hours   
   across portions of western Texas.   
      
   ...West TX Vicinity...   
      
   Friday will begin with upper level ridging centered over the   
   central/southern High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow   
   across the western Gulf into west TX will transport modest boundary   
   layer moisture northwestward into the Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin, and   
   northward into the TX South Plains and Red River Valley. Meanwhile,   
   an upper trough oriented over southern CA/northwest Mexico will   
   steadily shift east toward the southern Rockies by early Saturday.   
   As this occurs, the upper ridge will shift east and midlevel   
   moistening/cooling will occur after 00z. Furthermore, deep-layer   
   southwesterly flow will increase across western TX.   
      
   Elevated instability is expected to develop by late afternoon/early   
   evening across the region in response to increasing moisture and   
   cooling aloft. As large-scale ascent overspreads the southern   
   Rockies/High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop   
   on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Convection will   
   likely remain elevated given post-sunset timing and nocturnal   
   stabilization of the boundary layer. Nevertheless, supercell wind   
   profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 3km are present   
   in forecast soundings, along with steep midlevel lapse rates.   
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce marginally   
   severe hail to near 1-inch diameter during the evening/overnight   
   hours.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/11/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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