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   FOUS11 KWBC 110625   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   125 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
   ...Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   The strong clipper-type low will continue to push east off the New   
   England coast as the driving shortwave aloft races to the   
   southeast. The vorticity accompanying this shortwave will help   
   develop secondary low pressure along a triple point well offshore   
   (near Nova Scotia), with this secondary low deepening as it pulls   
   away. Although this low should be well too far east to bring any   
   direct impacts to the Northeast, the guidance continues to indicate   
   an inverted trough will pivot cyclonically around the low, bringing   
   enhanced ascent to the coast of Maine, resulting in bands of heavy   
   snow. Some uncertainty continues with the exact placement of these   
   bands, but the high-res is quite agreeable in their occurrence.   
   This suggests that while WPC probabilities for 4+ inches are just   
   30-50% across primarily the Downeast coast of Maine, some locally   
   higher totals are probable as reflected by pronounced spread in the   
   WSE plumes.   
      
   Additionally, in the wake of this clipper, increasing CAA   
   atop the Great Lakes, despite significant ice cover, will result in   
   periods of lake effect snow, primarily E/SE of Lake Ontario with   
   some lighter snowfall east of Lake Erie which is mostly ice   
   covered. WPC probabilities for this LES are high (>70%) for 4+   
   inches for the western Adirondacks, Tug Hill Plateau, Finger Lakes   
   region, and northern Chautauqua Ridge. The greatest accumulations,   
   which may exceed 8 inches (30% chance) are across the Tug Hill.   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to the Central/Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A closed mid-level low positioned along the coast of northern CA   
   will generally fill in place as the accompanying longwave trough   
   elongates back to the southwest as secondary vorticity energy   
   rotates through the base ot approach southern CA and Baja by Friday   
   morning. This stalled evolution will result in a resurgence of an   
   upper level jet streak to sharpen downstream of this trough axis,   
   and while the secondary jet streak tonight into Thursday won't be   
   as powerful as the lead jet, it will maintain moisture advection   
   and broad LFQ diffluent ascent from CA into the Central Rockies.   
   The overlap of this jet streak with broad but persistent SW mid-   
   level flow also downstream of the primary trough axis will surge   
   moisture eastward as far as CO as reflected by NAEFS IVT   
   percentiles surging to above the 99th percentile in CO, with   
   prolonged anomalies above the 90th percentile back into the Great   
   Basin.   
      
   This plume of moisture will be primarily shed eastward within a WAA   
   plume, so snow levels will be generally 6000-7000 ft, lowering   
   slowly as the trough axis pivots eastward, but this will likely be   
   accompanied by rapid drying and a resulting cutoff of   
   precipitation. For this reason, the heaviest snowfall accumulations   
   are likely to be above 7000 ft (as high as 8000 ft in CO), with a   
   wane in precipitation expected as snow levels fall. WPC   
   probabilities D1 are high for at least 6 inches of snow in the high   
   Sierra, the Uintas/Wasatch, the Tetons/Wind Rivers, and parts of   
   the CO Rockies including the Park Range. D2 probabilities compress   
   and fall rapidly, leading to just residual elevated probabilities   
   above 30% for 4+ inches in the CO Rockies.   
      
      
   ...Southern Rockies...   
   Day 3...   
      
   The same secondary shortwave responsible for elongating the trough   
   over CA/Great Basin D2 will shed eastward Friday morning, moving   
   across southern CA/Baja Norte before closing off once again near   
   the Four Corners Friday evening. This evolution will promote   
   downstream ascent through impressive height falls paired with   
   modest jet streak amplification, leading to widespread deep layer   
   lift spreading into the Four Corners and southern Rockies Friday   
   into Saturday. The antecedent thermal structure will be modest for   
   snowfall (snow levels 8000-9000 ft), but increasing ascent within   
   a moistening column will expand precipitation and allow for snow,   
   which could be heavy, especially in the higher terrain of the   
   Sangre de Cristos, White Mountains, and San Juans, with some   
   dynamic cooling of the column possible later D3 as some deformation   
   develops across northern NM. Still a lot of uncertainty in the   
   exact evolution, but at this time WPC probabilities indicate a   
   moderate to high risk (50-90% chance) for at least 4 inches in the   
   higher terrain.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Weiss   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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