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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 102001   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 101959   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0159 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.   
      
   ...20Z Update...   
      
   ...OH Valley into the Mid-South...   
   Recent surface analysis places a low just east of Lake Erie, with an   
   associated cold front extending southwestward from this low through   
   northwest OH, central IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. This cold   
   front will continue to push southeastward through the evening and   
   overnight. Mid 50s dewpoints now reach into central KY, which is   
   likely near the northern extent of these higher dewpoints. Even so,   
   this could be just enough low-level moisture to support modest   
   buoyancy just ahead of the front from central KY into central WV,   
   where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and   
   evening. A few thunderstorms are also possible tonight along and   
   ahead of the front in the Mid-South vicinity. Here, overlap between   
   modest low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) and   
   cooling mid-level temperatures will support limited buoyancy.   
      
   As mentioned in the previous outlook, an isolated strong wind gust   
   or two is possible in both of these areas, but the overall threat of   
   severe storms remains low.   
      
   ...TX Trans-Pecos...   
   A few embedded thunderstorms are possible across the TX Trans-Pecos   
   and Edwards Plateau amid continued forcing for ascent and cooling   
   mid-level temperatures ahead of the shortwave trough moving out of   
   northern Mexico. Severe hazards are not expected.   
      
   ...CA...   
   Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms are still anticipated   
   this evening through tonight, mostly after 00Z, as a compact but   
   strong shortwave trough moves into central CA. Gusty winds are   
   possible within the primary frontal band, but organized severe   
   weather is not expected.   
      
   ..Mosier.. 02/10/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/   
      
   ...OH Valley...   
   An upper trough is moving across the Great Lakes region today, with   
   a 100kt mid-level jet nosing into NY.  The associated surface cold   
   front will sag southward into parts of WV/KY/TN this afternoon and   
   evening.  Southwesterly low-level wind ahead of the front will   
   continue to slowly moisten the air mass, leading to a corridor of   
   marginal CAPE.  This will lead of a line of showers and occasional   
   thunderstorms from central WV into west TN and eastern AR...mainly   
   after 00z.  While an isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out,   
   the threat of severe storms appears low.   
      
   ...CA...   
   A strong and progressive upper trough will move into central CA this   
   afternoon and evening, providing widespread lift and mid-level   
   moisture across that region.  Most model solutions suggest a line of   
   low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms along the front as it   
   moves inland after 21z.  Gusty winds will be possible with the line,   
   but organized severe weather is not anticipated.   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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