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   FOUS11 KWBC 101945   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   245 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 00Z Sat Feb 14 2026   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to the Central/Southern Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Closed low just west of NorCal will push eastward tonight as a   
   surface cold front moves toward/into the Sierra. A trailing upper   
   low to its northwest will take a longer route along its southwest   
   side and eventually move into the Southwest/northeastern Mexico   
   late in the forecast period. The trough axis will remain   
   positively-tilted as the two entities act to slow the overall   
   progress of the flow resulting in an unsettled period but bounded   
   by two periods of modest to perhaps heavier precipitation. Moisture   
   amounts and flux anomalies are modest, but accumulations will be   
   aided by favorable upslope SW flow. Snow levels will vary between   
   6000-7000ft over the Sierra and snow rates will likely be >1-2"/hr   
   at times tonight/early Wednesday per the 12Z CAM guidance. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 12 inches of snow are >50% above 6500ft   
   or so. Two-day totals may exceed 2ft in the highest elevations.   
      
   Farther downstream, moisture tied back to the subtropics will   
   continue to increase over the Great Basin to the central Rockies   
   tonight as the upper jet accelerates over the region and PVA   
   increases. Snow levels around 6000-7000ft will favor mountain snow   
   to areas that have seen very little this season. WPC probabilities   
   for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% above 7000ft or so in UT and   
   8000ft in WY, highest over the Uintas and Wind Rivers/Tetons, but   
   with modest totals overall. Snow will linger longest over the CO   
   Rockies through Thursday as the moisture plume stalls due to the   
   trailing upper low. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow   
   are >70% above 10,000ft or so in CO. By Friday, as that system   
   finally moves over northeastern Mexico, moisture and height falls   
   will lead to snow over the southern Rockies (southwestern CO and   
   northern NM) as well as into AZ (Mogollon Rim/White Mountains).   
   Amounts will be light except for the highest elevations, generally   
   above 10,000ft.   
      
      
   ...Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A strong clipper-type low will move through New England tonight   
   and stretch out to the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow morning. This   
   clipper will be driven primarily by a closed, but weakening, mid-   
   level low tracking atop it, with elongated vorticity to its south   
   producing additional ascent. The elongated vorticity will favor a   
   jump in the surface low down the occlusion and into the Gulf of   
   Maine by 12Z Wed which will then start to rapidly deepen as it   
   pulls away into Atlantic Canada. The storm will come in three   
   distinct parts related to winter weather:   
      
   1) Pronounced warm-air-advection (WAA) developing south of the   
   clipper this evening will surge northeastward atop a warm front   
   across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast. This will create an   
   expanding shield of precipitation, and although some light mixed   
   rain/snow/freezing rain is expected over the northern Mid- Atlantic   
   into the NYC metro area, much of this precipitation should fall as   
   snow across New England (esp north of I-90) and Upstate New York.   
   The snow that occurs will likely be heavy at times within a WAA   
   band, likely exceeding 1"/hr (60-90% chance per the 12Z HREF), with   
   the short temporal duration limiting the total snowfall. Still,   
   impactful snow is likely this evening and tonight spreading from   
   west to east with the highest totals over the Adirondacks and   
   central/northern New England.   
      
   2) Post-clipper cold-air-advection (CAA) will become impressive in   
   the wake of the low. This will create increasing lake effect snow   
   (LES) despite significant ice cover now over the Great Lakes, as   
   well as intensifying upslope snow into the terrain of the   
   Adirondacks and Greens. Very dry air beneath the subsidence   
   inversion will impinge into the DGZ from above during this time, so   
   that will act to limit snowfall intensity within the upslope   
   regime, but additional accumulations are likely. LES will also be   
   somewhat modest and multi-banded, focused east of Lake Ontario into   
   the Tug Hill and then southeast through the Finger Lakes region   
   into far SW NY east of mostly frozen Lake Erie (likely aided from   
   Lake Huron and/or Georgian Bay).   
      
   WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >50% for the   
   western Adirondacks as well as central/northern New England and   
   much of Maine, especially outside the lower elevations. For the   
   higher elevations, WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow   
   are >50% over the Greens, Whites, and the Central Highlands in   
   Maine with locally as much as 8 inches possible. For the LES areas   
   in NY, WPC probabilities are moderate (40-70%) for least 4 inches   
   with higher local accumulations. For the freezing rain, a swath of   
   moderate probabilities (40-70%) exists for 0.01+" of ice from the   
   Finger Lakes/Southern Tier down I-88/81 through the Poconos   
   eastward along I-80 through northern NJ and into southern New   
   England and perhaps Long Island. Amounts should be less than 0.10"   
   but any freezing rain can be hazardous to travel, especially   
   overnight.   
      
   3) Finally, as the surface low deepens rapidly offshore and near   
   Nova Scotia Wednesday, the guidance continues to suggest a   
   lingering inverted trough that will pivot near the coast of eastern   
   Maine. Where this occurs, additional ascent will be locally   
   impressive, leading to the potential for several inches of   
   additional snowfall. These inverted troughs can sometimes lead to   
   sneaky-heavy snowfall accumulations, but WPC probabilities for at   
   least 8 inches of snow are moderate (40-70%) around Eastport.   
   Locally higher totals are possible as reflected in some rather   
   robust 12Z CAM members along the coast of Maine.   
      
   The probability of significant icing across the CONUS is less than   
   10 percent.   
      
      
   Fracasso/Weiss   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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