TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169389.weather@1:2320/105 2df34510   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 101830   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   130 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE   
   TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A mid-level shortwave trough axis will approach the central and   
   southern coast of California tonight, bringing an atmospheric   
   river to the region with origins back to the Hawaiian Islands.   
   Blended TPW imagery showed precipitable water values this morning   
   up to 0.9 inches within the nose of the atmospheric river near 33N   
   125W. Recent RAP forecasts show IVT values peaking in the 500-600   
   kg/m/s range across Santa Barbara County around 03Z and steadily   
   advancing east while weakening to about 400 kg/m/s through 12Z.   
   850 mb winds are forecast to peak in the 40-50 kt range early   
   tonight across the western Transverse Ranges, oriented largely   
   perpendicular to the axis of terrain, maximizing upslope lift. 850   
   mb winds look to weaken through 12Z into the 25-35 kt range through   
   12Z with limited (< 250 J/kg) instability along coastal areas.   
      
   A band of heavy rain is likely to move through southern California   
   tonight in association with an approaching Pacific cold front. The   
   00Z and 12Z CAMs show hourly rainfall potential across the   
   Transverse Ranges in the 0.5 to ~1.0 inch range between roughly 03Z   
   to 12Z Wednesday with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, isolated   
   near 3 inches possible. The potential for runoff and isolated flash   
   flooding appears fairly low but the potential for the overlap of   
   higher rainfall intensities with sensitive burn scars is enough to   
   support a Marginal Risk for the Day 1 period, in coordination with   
   WFO LOX. Beyond 12Z Wednesday, rainfall rates weaken further as IVT   
   values lower into the Peninsular Ranges with little to no flash   
   flood threat anticipated for the early Wednesday morning period.   
      
   Otto/Bann   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Isd8jJynPnFQpbLFQPWPGRRKb0CatJgomE0h79xMf-h=   
   rNieBmztcl0WugtDLpM1XeFlZFqqaKr5q-4i8EycSQUiIwY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Isd8jJynPnFQpbLFQPWPGRRKb0CatJgomE0h79xMf-h=   
   rNieBmztcl0WugtDLpM1XeFlZFqqaKr5q-4i8EycnPpjXJo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Isd8jJynPnFQpbLFQPWPGRRKb0CatJgomE0h79xMf-h=   
   rNieBmztcl0WugtDLpM1XeFlZFqqaKr5q-4i8Eycjg-0CdA$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 19/10 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302 128/187 129/14   
   SEEN-BY: 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/700 840 220/10 20 70   
   SEEN-BY: 220/90 221/1 6 360 226/17 18 20 30 44 50 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 266/512   
   SEEN-BY: 267/800 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 770/1 100 340 350 772/210 220   
   SEEN-BY: 772/230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426