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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 101557   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1057 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE=20   
   TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...   
      
   A mid-level shortwave trough axis will approach the central and   
   southern coast of California tonight, bringing an atmospheric=20   
   river to the region with origins back to the Hawaiian Islands.=20   
   Blended TPW imagery showed precipitable water values this morning=20   
   up to 0.9 inches within the nose of the atmospheric river near 33N=20   
   125W. Recent RAP forecasts show IVT values peaking in the 500-600=20   
   kg/m/s range across Santa Barbara County around 03Z and steadily=20   
   advancing east while weakening to about 400 kg/m/s through 12Z.=20   
   850 mb winds are forecast to peak in the 40-50 kt range early=20   
   tonight across the western Transverse Ranges, oriented largely=20   
   perpendicular to the axis of terrain, maximizing upslope lift. 850=20   
   mb winds look to weaken through 12Z into the 25-35 kt range through   
   12Z with limited (< 250 J/kg) instability along coastal areas.   
      
   A band of heavy rain is likely to move through southern California   
   tonight in association with an approaching Pacific cold front. The   
   00Z and 12Z CAMs show hourly rainfall potential across the=20   
   Transverse Ranges in the 0.5 to ~1.0 inch range between roughly 03Z   
   to 12Z Wednesday with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, isolated=20   
   near 3 inches possible. The potential for runoff and isolated flash   
   flooding appears fairly low but the potential for the overlap of=20   
   higher rainfall intensities with sensitive burn scars is enough to   
   support a Marginal Risk for the Day 1 period, in coordination with   
   WFO LOX. Beyond 12Z Wednesday, rainfall rates weaken further as IVT   
   values lower into the Peninsular Ranges with little to no flash   
   flood threat anticipated for the early Wednesday morning period.   
      
   Otto/Bann   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6A2vUg0Pi2HIFV0eKPh80hPoHxsRkdvuoe9mOfJSx1pl=   
   SG9wZkodDCigz9b5ejiEXO8EFlkjAM9FEXcjbYwuas3LquU$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6A2vUg0Pi2HIFV0eKPh80hPoHxsRkdvuoe9mOfJSx1pl=   
   SG9wZkodDCigz9b5ejiEXO8EFlkjAM9FEXcjbYwu7ZMchVs$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6A2vUg0Pi2HIFV0eKPh80hPoHxsRkdvuoe9mOfJSx1pl=   
   SG9wZkodDCigz9b5ejiEXO8EFlkjAM9FEXcjbYwuphjfvgA$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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