TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169371.weather@1:2320/105 2df29da2   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 100535   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 100533   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
      
   Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced   
   short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half   
   of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern   
   CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates   
   and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are   
   expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective   
   updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak   
   destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short   
   wave/cold front.   
      
   Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low   
   over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject   
   northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by   
   late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of   
   this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove   
   favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning   
   is expected with some of this activity.   
      
   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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