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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 092257   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   557 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth/Otto   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Transverse Range of Southern California...   
   The 09/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests   
   that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold   
   front advancing inland across central and southern CA later on   
   Tuesday night has the potential to bring several inches of rain to   
   portions of the Transverse Range. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF   
   still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s   
   which looks to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse   
   Range. This may foster some heavier orographically focused rainfall   
   during the latter part of the period. Deterministic guidance   
   suggests as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow   
   into the terrain coupled with the front may support isolated   
   heavier totals closer to 3 inches. Held off on introducing a   
   Marginal Risk area for now but an upgrade may still be   
   needed...especially given some of the runoff sensitivities with   
   burn scars and the sloped terrain.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   With the plume of moisture propagating eastward fairly quickly and   
   away from areas which received rain on Tuesday...no need to   
   introduce a Marginal risk area at this time.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5p9hrm0hDQp2PGqhDKy-nDnciQi76UeA9gDAz0TrafHy=   
   qvLOi7ZX-bQCB49kXQT8QWRTwCgl7vb_EbOJx9mMEi_hdqs$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5p9hrm0hDQp2PGqhDKy-nDnciQi76UeA9gDAz0TrafHy=   
   qvLOi7ZX-bQCB49kXQT8QWRTwCgl7vb_EbOJx9mMqgHe7xY$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5p9hrm0hDQp2PGqhDKy-nDnciQi76UeA9gDAz0TrafHy=   
   qvLOi7ZX-bQCB49kXQT8QWRTwCgl7vb_EbOJx9mMPeA5ifM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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