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   FOUS11 KWBC 091952   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   252 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 00Z Fri Feb 13 2026   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A mid-level low in the northeast Pacific just north of a 150kt jet   
   streak this evening will move southeastward then eastward into   
   NorCal tomorrow night. This will direct a modest plume of moisture   
   into the Sierra with snow levels initially around 7000ft then   
   dropping to around 6000ft. Snow could fall at >1"/hr tomorrow night   
   in the higher Sierra (>8000ft) then subside through Wednesday. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% above 6000ft   
   or so with >18" likely (<80%) above 8000ft.   
      
   The system will continue eastward as the upper jet strengthens   
   over the Great Basin to central Rockies as the upper trough remains   
   positively-tilted. Moisture will continue to funnel from the sub-   
   tropics into the Four Corners region (>90th percentile) on   
   southwesterly flow. Snow levels will waver around 6000-7000ft with   
   modest amounts expected in an area that has seen very little snow   
   this season. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are   
   >50% above 7000ft or so in UT and 8000ft in WY. Snow will linger   
   longest over the CO Rockies through Thursday as the moisture plume   
   stalls there as a result of a second shortwave trailing the lead   
   system, maintaining SW flow through the end of this period. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are >50% above 10,000ft   
   or so in CO.   
      
      
   ...Northern Great Lakes and Northeast...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A progressive closed mid-level low will elongate and track from   
   the Northern Great Lakes to across New England mid-week,   
   translating into the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. This upper feature   
   will be accompanied by an extended vorticity lobe on its south   
   side along the occlusion, helping to produce strong ascent through   
   height falls/PVA across the region. As this develops, pronounced   
   warm air advection (WAA) will develop to its south up and over a   
   surface warm front across the Mid-Atlantic. Lead WAA- drive   
   precipitation will arrive over northern NY/New England tomorrow   
   evening followed by the frontal passage. CAA will ensue with some   
   lake effect and upslope snow across the region Wednesday through   
   Thursday.   
      
   Quasi-zonal flow will limit precipitation duration, but CAM   
   guidance still indicates a window of >1"/hr rates (50-80% chance)   
   over the Adirondacks, northern and central VT/NH, and into   
   southwest Maine between 21Z Tue and 04Z Wed (from west to east)   
   ahead of the occlusion and as it translates into the Gulf of Maine.   
   Behind the front, NW flow will support widespread multi-banded   
   lake effect snow downwind of all Great Lakes (less from mostly all-   
   frozen Erie) that will be enhanced at times from trailing vort   
   maxes streaming in from the NW.   
      
   WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow for the event are   
   >50% over southwestern NY, central NY into the Adirondacks/North   
   Country, northern VT/NH and across much of Maine except for far   
   northern areas (removed from the higher QPF). Some favored upslope   
   areas could see in excess of 8 inches of snow, especially over the   
   Tug Hill into the Green Mountains.   
      
   Finally, as the closed low moves into the Gulf of Maine, a new   
   surface low down the occlusion will deepen offshore in response.   
   While direct impacts from this surface low are not expected to be   
   significant, the guidance (e.g., NAMnest, CMCreg) is hinting at a   
   lingering inverted trough pivoting back across coastal Maine   
   Wednesday afternoon/evening. These inverted troughs can sometimes   
   lead to sneaky-heavy snowfall accumulations. WPC probabilities for   
   at least 8 inches of snow between Bangor and Eastport are 25-45%   
   right now, and may change pending more hi-res guidance.   
      
      
   Fracasso/Weiss   
      
      
   $$   
      
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