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   ACUS02 KWNS 091720   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 091718   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1118 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   The mid-level pattern will amplify on Tuesday with a trough   
   developing over the Great Lakes and a building ridge across the   
   western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough beneath this ridge will   
   move from northern Mexico into West Texas. Another mid-level   
   shortwave trough will deepen as it approaches the California coast.   
   Surface high pressure will build across the central CONUS on Tuesday   
   with a surface low moving from the Great Lakes to New England and   
   another surface low off the California coast.   
      
   As a mid-level trough overspreads West Texas on Tuesday, mid-level   
   temperatures will cool. This will result in mostly weak instability   
   and scattered thunderstorm potential. No severe weather is expected   
   with this activity.   
      
   Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected across   
   central California Tuesday evening to early Wednesday as weak   
   instability develops with cooling temperatures aloft with the   
   approaching mid-level shortwave trough.   
      
   Weak elevated instability may support some convection across the   
   Tennessee region Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours amid   
   weak isentropic ascent and a southward moving frontal zone. Forecast   
   soundings show a relatively shallow unstable layer which may not be   
   sufficient for any charge separation. Even if lightning occurs, it   
   should be very isolated/sparse given the forecast thermodynamic   
   profiles.   
      
   ..Bentley.. 02/09/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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