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   684    
   AXNT20 KNHC 091009   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A   
   cold front extends from 31N46W to the north coast of Hispaniola.   
   Gale-force W winds are ongoing behind the front, N of 28N,   
   westward to 68W. Seas in these gales are 20 to 28 ft, with very   
   rough seas in excess of 12 ft extending southward to 21N between   
   40W and 74W due to a broad area of very significant NW swell.   
   Generally fresh to strong NW to W winds are present where the very   
   rough seas are ongoing behind the front, with SW winds of similar   
   magnitude ahead of the front. The cold front will move slowly east   
   through through Tue, while weakening, then stall from around   
   31N38W to 18N56W. Gale-force winds should end early Tue morning,   
   but the very rough seas will persist, gradually decaying from W    
   to E, but remaining above 12 ft for portions of the waters through   
   Wed. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest    
   forecasts.   
      
   South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building   
   southward toward the Greater Antilles early this week will tighten   
   the pressure gradient over the Caribbean, increasing tradewinds.   
   The result will be gale-force winds pulsing tonight and again Tue   
   night offshore Colombia, mainly within about 90 nm from the   
   coast. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in association with these   
   gales.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts    
   issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  and   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php   
     for more details on these events.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Liberia near 06N10W and extends southwestward to near 02N18W,    
   where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 00N44W.    
   Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 00N to   
   04N between 09W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection extends    
   from 00S to 04N between 34W and 44W.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the east-central Gulf    
   near 26N88W, with the associated ridge extending across the basin.   
   Thus, winds are light to gentle and anticyclonic, with some   
   locally moderate E winds the E Bay of Campeche. Seas are 1 to 3   
   ft, except for the eastern Bay of Campeche, where 4 ft seas are ongoing.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters    
   through late week, bringing gentle to moderate mainly southerly    
   flow. Locally fresh winds are expected, mainly at night, just west   
   of the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the far western waters. Slight   
   to moderate seas will prevail.    
      
   In the wake of a cold front that will slide E of the   
   Leeward Islands today and tonight, high pressure will build   
   southward into the basin, leading to increasing trade winds. Fresh   
   NE winds will dominate much of the basin through mid-week, with   
   strong winds developing over the central Caribbean. Winds are   
   likely to pulse to gale-force tonight and again Tue night offshore   
   Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the Mona    
   Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   See Special Features section above for information on a Gale   
   Warning in effect for waters offshore Colombia.   
      
   A surface trough extends from the Leeward Islands to the SW basin   
   near 14N75W. Another weak surface trough is along 81W, southward   
   from 17N. Otherwise, high pressure centered N of the area   
   dominates, creating a trade-wind regime for area waters. Fresh   
   NE winds are present over the basin between 65W and 83W, with   
   mainly moderate winds farther to the east and west. Strong winds   
   have developed offshore Colombia and Dominican Republic. Seas   
   where the fresh to strong winds exist are 5 to 7 ft, with 3 to 5   
   ft seas elsewhere. Some locally rough seas are likely present just   
   offshore Colombia.    
      
   For the forecast, in the wake of a cold front that will slide E    
   of the Leeward Islands today and tonight, high pressure will build   
   southward into the basin, leading to increasing trade winds.    
   Fresh NE winds will dominate much of the basin through mid-week,    
   with strong winds developing over the central Caribbean. Winds are   
   likely to pulse to gale-force tonight and again Tue night    
   offshore Colombia. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell will impact the    
   Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale    
   warning and significant swell in the western and central Atlantic.   
      
   Hazardous marine conditions dominate much of the basin, as   
   depicted in the Special Features section, in association with a   
   cold front crossing the central basin. High pressure of 1025 mb   
   centered over Florida and the Canary Islands dominate most of the   
   remaining waters, providing moderate or weaker winds and moderate   
   seas. Moderate to fresh trades are impacting a belt S of 20N   
   between Africa and the Windward Islands, and seas in this region   
   are 5 to 7 ft.    
      
   For the forecast W of 55W, very rough seas impacting waters E of    
   74W will only slowly subside from W to E, decaying below 12 ft    
   region-wide by Wed. Peak seas this morning along 31N to the SE of    
   Bermuda will be as high as 28 ft. High pressure will cross the    
   waters Tue through Thu, leading to mainly improving conditions,    
   but another frontal system passing N of the region will lead to    
   strong SW winds N of 29N during this time.    
      
   $$   
   Konarik   
      
   ##   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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