TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169347.weather@1:2320/105 2df173d0   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 090926   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 090925   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX   
   to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this   
   period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and   
   Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to   
   timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints   
   will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.   
      
   Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the   
   Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf   
   Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML   
   guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the   
   current forecast strength and track of the associated surface   
   cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end   
   potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the   
   aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic   
   environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes   
   15 percent severe delineation at this time.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/09/2026   
      
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