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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   316 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Transverse Range of Southern California...   
   The 09/00Z suite of global and ensemble guidance still suggests   
   that a modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific cold=20   
   front advancing inland across central and southern CA later on=20   
   Tuesday night has the potential to bring several inches of rain to=20   
   portions of the Transverse Range. The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF=20   
   still suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to 500 kg/m/s=20   
   which looks to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse=20   
   Range. This may foster some heavier orographically focused rainfall   
   during the latter part of the period. Deterministic guidance=20   
   suggests as much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow   
   into the terrain coupled with the front may support isolated=20   
   heavier totals closer to 3 inches. Held off on introducing a=20   
   Marginal Risk area for now but an upgrade may still be=20   
   needed...especially given some of the runoff sensitivities with=20   
   burn scars and the sloped terrain.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   With the plume of moisture propagating eastward fairly quickly and   
   away from areas which received rain on Tuesday...no need to   
   introduce a Marginal risk area at this time.   
      
   Bann   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!98RDx2m-AQbpJn47NlcUfvIhbzoYE5OfUdQ8zQfi2A-e=   
   qrJm8LqGFQofuN_hnMNe6BxLfuAclyisxvRbneqDW9cD6fw$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!98RDx2m-AQbpJn47NlcUfvIhbzoYE5OfUdQ8zQfi2A-e=   
   qrJm8LqGFQofuN_hnMNe6BxLfuAclyisxvRbneqD09Wn8bM$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!98RDx2m-AQbpJn47NlcUfvIhbzoYE5OfUdQ8zQfi2A-e=   
   qrJm8LqGFQofuN_hnMNe6BxLfuAclyisxvRbneqDUmK_wys$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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