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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 082321   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   621 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth/Orrison   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Transverse Range of Southern California...   
   The latest 12Z multi-model consensus suggests a modest atmospheric   
   river and an associated Pacific cold front advancing inland across   
   central and southern CA later Tuesday night and early Wednesday.   
   This will be driven by the approach of an amplifying upper-level   
   trough and associated closed low from offshore. The latest   
   GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to   
   500 kg/m/s. However, this moisture transport along the front is   
   expected to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse Range,   
   which may foster by the end of the period some heavier   
   orographically focused rainfall. A look the 12Z EC-AIFS guidance   
   suggests areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties   
   as having the greatest concerns. Deterministic guidance suggests as   
   much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow into the terrain   
   coupled with the front may support isolated heavier totals closer   
   to 3 inches. Will hold off on a Marginal Risk for now, but an   
   upgrade may need to considered with future updates, and especially   
   given some of the runoff sensitivities with burn scars and the   
   sloped terrain.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9TpkFJD50FJMn3VbfDgVeKdkUSwLfMQ10WUxmgxFofMi=   
   zqsZpg8RuIFDWMZMjBg1NEuKpEN6UpLL06qyPHISOsOZ1xE$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9TpkFJD50FJMn3VbfDgVeKdkUSwLfMQ10WUxmgxFofMi=   
   zqsZpg8RuIFDWMZMjBg1NEuKpEN6UpLL06qyPHISbmrUKMU$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9TpkFJD50FJMn3VbfDgVeKdkUSwLfMQ10WUxmgxFofMi=   
   zqsZpg8RuIFDWMZMjBg1NEuKpEN6UpLL06qyPHISvIY6QzA$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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