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   FOUS11 KWBC 082034   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   334 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 00Z Thu Feb 12 2026   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A shortwave trough crosses the Pacific Northwest this evening and   
   the northern Rockies Monday. Much of the moisture is ahead of this   
   trough axis with moderate to heavy rates stretches from far   
   northern CA through OR and western MT. Snow levels are initially   
   high, around 7000ft, over northern CA through ID/southern   
   MT, with a gradient down to 4000ft just a couple hundred miles   
   north. Height falls from the trough axis will lower tonight to   
   around 4000ft across the snow zone (3000ft where the 4000ft levels   
   currently are). Day 1 snow probs are 50-80% for >6" across the   
   Sawtooths through Bitterroots, and all western MT and northwest WY   
   ranges. These values are generally 30-70% for the WA/OR Cascades   
   above about 5000ft. Ridging behind the trough axis will provide a   
   fairly clean cut off for this mountain snow fall by late Monday.   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada to Wyoming...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A closed mid-level low will approach central California from the   
   west on Tuesday before stalling over northern CA through much of   
   Wednesday as a reinforcing trough digs around it well offshore.   
   Strengthening left exit jet dynamics through this time will enhance   
   lift for the onshore flow that rises over the Sierra Nevada. Energy   
   sheds east from the upper low Tuesday night bringing much needed   
   precip to the Great Basin and central Rockies through midweek.   
      
   Snow levels will be at or just below 7000ft along the Sierra Nevada   
   on Tuesday in the onshore flow, dropping to around 6000ft Tuesday   
   night under height falls. Great Basin/Rockies snow levels will   
   generally remain 6000-7000ft through midweek.   
      
   Day 2 snow probs for >6" are generally 30-60% along the Sierra   
   Nevada (and Lassen Peak) for the initial snow on Tuesday. The bulk   
   of Sierra snow falls Tuesday night/Wednesday with Day 3 snow probs   
   for >12" generally 30-60% between 6500ft and 8000ft (and 80%   
   above). High-end advisories are raised for the Sierra Nevada. There   
   is risk for localized enhanced snowfall that would warrant targeted   
   warnings, particularly if rates can pick up around 7000ft   
   elevation. Farther east, Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 30-70% on the   
   highest NV ranges (such as Ruby), the highest Uinta, and   
   particularly for the Tetons and Wind Rivers.   
      
      
   ...Northern Great Lakes and Northeast...   
   Days 2/3...   
      
   The shortwave trough crossing the Pacific Northwest tonight reaches   
   the northern Great Lakes Monday night where it could merge with   
   northern stream energy over Ontario and promote decent   
   development/warm air advection precip over the northern Great   
   Lakes. This would be a wintry mix on the southern end with some   
   snow banding potential either over Lake Superior or possibly into   
   the eastern U.P. Day 2 snow probs for >4" are 20-50% over the far   
   northern L.P. and eastern U.P. while there are 40-70% probs for   
   >0.01" ice from the WI/MI border ESE across the L.P.   
      
   By Tuesday afternoon the warm air advection plume shifts through   
   Upstate NY with the warm nose great enough for a wintry mix which   
   should tend toward freezing rain given how cold it has been there   
   lately. Day 2.5 snow probs for >4" are 30-70% over the Tug Hill,   
   Adirondacks, and Greens while 0.01" ice probs are 30 to 50% for   
   northern PA through southern NY and east through greater NYC.   
      
   Coastal low development aids snow banding into eastern Maine on   
   Tuesday night into Wednesday. Day 3 snow probs for >4" are 30-50%   
   along the entire Maine Coast.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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