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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   206 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Transverse Range of Southern California...   
   The latest 12Z multi-model consensus suggests a modest atmospheric   
   river and an associated Pacific cold front advancing inland across   
   central and southern CA later Tuesday night and early Wednesday.=20   
   This will be driven by the approach of an amplifying upper-level=20   
   trough and associated closed low from offshore. The latest=20   
   GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest rather modest IVT magnitudes of 300 to=20   
   500 kg/m/s. However, this moisture transport along the front is=20   
   expected to be become oriented orthogonal to the Transverse Range,=20   
   which may foster by the end of the period some heavier=20   
   orographically focused rainfall. A look the 12Z EC-AIFS guidance=20   
   suggests areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties=20   
   as having the greatest concerns. Deterministic guidance suggests as   
   much as 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, but the upslope flow into the terrain   
   coupled with the front may support isolated heavier totals closer=20   
   to 3 inches. Will hold off on a Marginal Risk for now, but an   
   upgrade may need to considered with future updates, and especially   
   given some of the runoff sensitivities with burn scars and the=20   
   sloped terrain.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q9WqCUJy94Uy_DazE-Fap2rsALZhmpjtQ0ZFjLHbuED=   
   EgPe7RHQ3EAlYDpa_RauNMGsA8juLYf2JmNYXh6sx07Wngk$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q9WqCUJy94Uy_DazE-Fap2rsALZhmpjtQ0ZFjLHbuED=   
   EgPe7RHQ3EAlYDpa_RauNMGsA8juLYf2JmNYXh6silVCvnk$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Q9WqCUJy94Uy_DazE-Fap2rsALZhmpjtQ0ZFjLHbuED=   
   EgPe7RHQ3EAlYDpa_RauNMGsA8juLYf2JmNYXh6sf6nt2EI$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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