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   FOUS11 KWBC 080719   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   219 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 11 2026   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A surface cold front will be draped NE to SW from Montana through   
   Oregon to start the period, lingering from a wave of low pressure   
   moving across Canada. As this cold front wavers Sunday, a   
   shortwave trough will emerge from the Pacific and cross northeast   
   into the Pacific Northwest, reaching the Northern Rockies Monday   
   evening while deamplifying and shearing out into the westerlies.   
   This will result in a secondary wave of low pressure developing   
   along the front which will finally kick the front southeast and out   
   of the region.   
      
   Forcing for ascent will intensify as this shortwave lifts   
   northeast, as mid-level divergence and heights falls interact atop   
   the boundary, and work in tandem with a zonally oriented but   
   intensifying jet streak arcing into the Northern Plains. This   
   synoptic lift atop the corresponding moisture (via strengthening   
   but still modest IVT) will result in a stripe of precipitation,   
   with snowfall expected in the higher terrain. Snow levels will be   
   falling through the period as the cold front and height falls   
   progress E/SE, reaching as low as 3000-4000 ft before precip winds   
   down by Tuesday morning. 2-day WPC probabilities indicate a high   
   potential (>70% chance) for at least 8 inches in the higher terrain   
   of the Cascades, as well as across the Blue Mountains, and much of   
   the terrain of the Northern Rockies of ID/western MT/northwest WY.   
   Locally 1-2 feet is possible.   
      
      
   ...Sierra Nevada and Great Basin...=20   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A closed mid-level low west of California will gradually translate   
   eastward, potentially coming onshore northern California by the end   
   of the forecast period. The progression of this low will result in   
   increasing ascent through height falls/mid-level divergence into   
   CA. At the same time, a subtropical jet streak will intensify   
   downstream of this trough axis, strengthening to 130 kts and   
   placing the favorable LFQ diffluent region over CA and into the   
   Great Basin, aligning with the strongest height falls. Moisture   
   advection will spread onshore beneath modest IVT (40-60% chance of   
   at least 250 kg/m/s) but this will be sufficient to spread heavy   
   precipitation into the region. With snow levels expected to be   
   generally 6000-7000 ft, the heavy snow should be confined to the   
   Sierra and higher terrain farther east (Ruby mountains of NV and   
   into the Uintas, but at least light snow will spread across much of   
   the Great Basin above 6000 ft, rare for what has been an   
   exceptionally dry winter so far, and likely welcome for most of the   
   region. Current WPC probabilities indicate a high chance (>70%) for   
   more than 8 inches in the high Sierra, with locally more than 12   
   inches possible (30-50% chance). Farther east, WPC probabilities   
   indicate a low risk (30%) for 6+ inches in the Ruby Mountains and   
   parts of the Uintas.   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 3...   
      
   A clipper-type low will drop out of Ontario and cross Upstate New   
   York and New England Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The clipper   
   itself is not impressively strong, but will be preceded by a period   
   of moderate WAA which will help expand a shield of snowfall with   
   moderate snow rates from NY through central/northern New England.   
   As the clipper dives through the area after 00Z Wednesday, it will   
   be followed additionally by some upslope ascent into the   
   Adirondacks and Greens to enhance snowfall potential. Most of the   
   snow should be of moderate intensity and limited duration (6-12   
   hours), but where the WAA snow combined with post-system upslope   
   snow, a few inches of accumulation is likely. This is reflected by   
   WPC probabilities that indicate a 50-70% chance of at least 4   
   inches in the Adirondacks and Greens.   
      
      
   Weiss   
      
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!8eF8W36sZqTxakcMe0UhPFhNgT5PYu0eE845MF0JBX84Q=   
   a-TSjewl7qNUuyG1gEbVE4ah4GKia6xdYgvnsASn-AS6ng$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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