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   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026   
      
   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   ...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Gulf Coast States...   
      
   An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging   
   across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast   
   states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F   
   dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and   
   southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to   
   weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain   
   meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe   
   thunderstorms are not expected.   
      
   ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States...   
      
   Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day   
   6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun.   
   Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this   
   feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for   
   some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast   
   vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the   
   developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture   
   return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in   
   thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across   
   the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large   
   spread among guidance.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/07/2026   
      
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