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   FOUS11 KWBC 070706   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   206 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
      
   ...Northeast & Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Day 1...   
      
   Extreme cold and dangerous wind chills overspread the Northeast=20   
   tonight and continue through Sunday with Key Messages in effect=20   
   and linked below.   
      
   The combination of an arctic cold front current racing through the   
   Ohio Valley/Interior Mid-Atlantic will combine with a strengthening   
   low pressure well offshore to produce extremely cold temperatures   
   and damaging winds for much of the region, with heavy snow for=20   
   parts of the area as well.   
      
   A shortwave driving the cold front southward will help generate   
   widespread light snow across New England and Long Island, but total   
   snowfall amounts are expected to be rather modest. Despite that,   
   briefly heavy snow rates combined with the rapidly increasing winds   
   will still result in impacts, especially to travel due to snow-   
   covered roads and low visibility. The greatest impacts, and likely   
   more substantial snowfall, is expected from far SW Maine, SE New   
   Hampshire, and along the eastern Coast of Massachusetts from Cape   
   Ann to Cape Cod where low-level convergence, onshore flow and   
   resulting ocean effect snow (OES) and an inverted trough will all   
   interact to enhance snowfall. There continues to be uncertainty as   
   to where the heaviest snowfall will occur. However, intense=20   
   snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible (30-60% chance) thanks to=20   
   intense ascent into a lowering DGZ within the presence of some=20   
   instability. WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for 4+ inches=20   
   from the Seacoast of NH through the Boston metro area, with locally   
   more than 8 inches possible (10-30% chance) and as reflected by=20   
   significant spread amongst the WSE plumes.   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Mid-level trough positioned off the Pacific coast will slowly track   
   eastward today and Sunday, with the primary trough axis finally   
   pushing onshore Sunday night as a shortwave lifts onshore near the   
   CA/OR coast. This shortwave will then continue to track east while   
   deamplifying, reaching the northern High Plains by the end of the   
   forecast period.   
      
   This trough evolution will be accompanied by a modest subtropical   
   jet streak arcing meridionally downstream to provide overlapping   
   synoptic ascent. This lift will occur into a moistening column as   
   persistent SW flow ahead of the shortwave/trough axis will provide   
   a long duration of IVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s, with IVT max   
   potentially exceeding 500 kg/m/s (50-60% chance) which will lead to   
   two rounds of heavy precipitation extending from Oregon through=20   
   the Northern Rockies. Snow levels within the strongest IVT plume   
   will be 6000-7000 ft thanks to pronounced WAA, but will steadily   
   fall to 3000-4000 ft Monday as a cold front, driven by the   
   aforementioned trough, progresses southeast. This will allow for   
   heavier and more impactful snow across the Northern Rockies than   
   what is anticipated in the Cascades due to lower snow levels. 2-day   
   WPC probabilities indicate the heaviest snow is expected in the   
   vicinity of Glacier NP in the Northern Rockies where they exceed   
   70% for 12+ inches, and locally as much as 2 feet is possible in   
   the highest terrain. Elsewhere, WPC probabilities are high (>70%)   
   for 8+ inches across the Absarokas and Tetons near Yellowstone NP,   
   the Blue Mountains of OR, and across the highest peaks of the WA=20   
   and OR Cascades.   
      
      
      
   Weiss   
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4Xa2oHMmm6KfYz7unG9Agh0MhfUQ7fqpY9sRHyH0zmenP=   
   8OIT453zr1s2_i_RtderGizZjFyR5DPVZVOSXZzX8SPp3g$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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