TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169284.weather@1:2320/105 2dee9992   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 070531   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 070530   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1130 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026   
      
   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.   
      
   ...AZ/NM...   
   A low-latitude shortwave trough should drift southeastward, west of   
   Baja CA. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture within a weak   
   warm conveyor should spread into parts of far southeast AZ later   
   this morning, shifting east across southern NM through the   
   afternoon. This might yield minimal elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below   
   100 J/kg) within predominately marginal temperatures for charge   
   separation. As such, thunder probabilities for this regime appear to   
   be below 10 percent.   
      
   In its wake, isolated thunderstorms should be focused over southeast   
   AZ this afternoon as meager surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE below 500   
   J/kg) develops. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous in the wake of   
   the leading warm advection plume, but sufficient orographic lift   
   should exist to support a few cells. Guidance does differ on the   
   degree of storm coverage though, with the 00Z RRFS/ECMWF on the more   
   aggressive spectrum.   
      
   ..Grams.. 02/07/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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