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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 070236   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 070236=20   
   PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-070630-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0070   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0836 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026   
      
   Areas affected...parts of eastern West Virginia and adjacent   
   portions of western Maryland/Pennsylvania   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 070236Z - 070630Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow (at rates occasionally   
   up to 1+ inches per hour) and strengthening surface gusts to 30-40+   
   kt may develop by Midnight to 1 AM EST, accompanied by considerable   
   blowing and drifting of snow and occasionally sharply reduced   
   visibilities.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Mostly light to moderate snow overspreading the upper   
   Ohio Valley toward the western Allegheny Plateau is being supported   
   by forcing for ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave trough of   
   Arctic origins, which is forecast to continue digging across and   
   south-southeast of the lower Great Lakes region late this evening.=20   
   This is accompanied by a reinforcing cold front, which Rapid Refresh   
   indicates will begin overspreading the western slopes of the   
   Alleghenies during the 04-07Z time frame.=20=20   
      
   As this occurs, low-level flow is likely to veer to an increasing   
   northwesterly upslope component across the higher terrain,   
   contributing to strengthening upward vertical motion.  Forecast   
   soundings indicate that this lift, coupled with low-level cold   
   advection, will contribute to saturating profiles with steepening   
   lapse rates.  It appears that this may become supportive of the   
   development of very weak CAPE through a layer between 850-700 mb, as   
   temperatures within this layer cool to around and below -15 C.=20=20=20   
      
   Despite rather low precipitable water content falling below .20   
   inches, and the low residence height (higher pressure) of the   
   dendritic growth zone, the strong orographically enhanced low-level   
   lift and convective component may compensate, and support a period   
   of moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates on the order of .5-1+   
   inches per hour.  This is also likely to coincide with downward   
   mixing of strengthening low-level wind fields which may support   
   30-40 kt surface gusts, contributing to considerable drifting and   
   occasional sharply reduced visibilities.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/07/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9KIy1E12bLQi04OFS9FIp3VC4CiBJ5GEKLO7tgBxXQ8UD4_jL1rNabG_4VrRZE4nHYO0CUgL_=   
   1bB1hm4KrewvGzbsLQ$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...   
      
   LAT...LON   40027941 39447926 38717968 38158040 38448069 38578056   
               39128016 39627996 40027941=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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