TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169276.weather@1:2320/105 2dee1165   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS30 KWBC 061950   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   250 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   ...Olympic Peninsula...   
   A modest, but weakening atmospheric river event will be impacting   
   western WA late Friday night and into Saturday, with the latest   
   consensus of IVT magnitudes from the 12Z guidance generally peaking   
   in the 500 to 600 kg/m/s range before weakening. The upslope areas   
   of the Olympics should generally be capable of seeing as much as 2   
   to 2.5 inches of rain with perhaps an isolated max around 3=20   
   inches, but the latest HREF guidance shows the probabilities of=20   
   0.50"/hour rainfall rates peaking in only the 20 to 30 percent=20   
   range between 12Z/Sat and 00Z/Sun before the rain then tapers off=20   
   for the second half of the period. This coupled with the fact that=20   
   most streamflows have returned to near normal suggests that the=20   
   threat for any runoff issues/flooding at least for this period is=20   
   very low. Given this and some drier QPF trends in the guidance=20   
   compared to yesterday, it was decided to remove the Marginal Risk=20   
   which was also coordinated with WFO SEW.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7NtL9KLPWRegMaus22sBWX0SmJfz_J0hJguqiHaprGp_=   
   j9sdpaVzQDJIuEbV8vAerttuzFus6nEhE0fYZE0ZnwwIzxg$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7NtL9KLPWRegMaus22sBWX0SmJfz_J0hJguqiHaprGp_=   
   j9sdpaVzQDJIuEbV8vAerttuzFus6nEhE0fYZE0ZutyqGe8$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7NtL9KLPWRegMaus22sBWX0SmJfz_J0hJguqiHaprGp_=   
   j9sdpaVzQDJIuEbV8vAerttuzFus6nEhE0fYZE0ZdiAZawU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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