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   FOUS11 KWBC 061933   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   233 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Feb 07 2026 - 00Z Tue Feb 10 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Extreme cold and dangerous wind chills overspreads the Northeast=20   
   tonight with Key Messages in effect and linked below.   
      
   An upper low currently over James Bay gets sheared southeast over   
   the Northeast tonight on account of a strengthening NWly jet below   
   a stationary parent low north of Hudson Bay. Surface low pressure   
   develops early Saturday outside of the 70W/40N Benchmark with an   
   inverted trough extending from that low up through eastern New=20   
   England. This movement results in three notable areas of snow.   
      
   1) Central/Southern Appalachians: Ongoing upslope snow for the=20   
   central/southern Apps through this evening with powerful winds   
   overnight behind the cold front. Not much additional snow is   
   expected, particularly due to the Great Lakes being mostly ice=20   
   covered, but blowing snow is certainly a concern.   
      
   2) Great Lakes: Spotty lake effect snow will continue into Saturday   
   for parts of northern MI downwind of open portions of Lake=20   
   Superior and Michigan.   
      
   3) Eastern New England: Strong N/NE winds within the CAA should=20   
   produce ocean enhanced snowfall (OES) in eastern Mass. At the same   
   time, the inverted trough pivots across the region with low- level   
   convergence aiding in ascent. Fgen efficiently intersecting the=20   
   lowering DGZ will result in narrow corridors of heavy snowfall.=20   
   Day 1 snow probs for >4" are 40-70% for southern NH down through   
   Rhode Island.   
      
   Snow Squalls: the greatest snow squall threat is this evening over   
   Ohio and West Virginia west of the Allegheny Front where high=20   
   winds coincide with frontal banding. This area has had the most=20   
   notable snow squall parameter values in recent days. Any convective   
   snow showers or squalls that develop will contain brief heavy snow   
   rates and strong winds, leading to hazardous travel.   
   More general snowfall can be expected with the front tonight across   
   NY state and the Green Mtns.=20   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A shortwave trough axis crosses the Pacific Northwest Saturday/=20   
   Saturday night with a second trough crossing late Sunday into   
   Monday. Enhanced moisture advection spreads inland ahead of these   
   waves with increasing snow over the Cascades and Northern Rockies.=20=20   
   Snow levels rise to 6000/7000ft tonight for the WA/OR Cascades with   
   levels over WA dropping up to 4000ft Saturday night under height   
   falls. Day 1 snow probs for >4" are 40-70% for the North Cascades   
   and WA Volcanoes above 6000ft. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are 40-70%   
   for the higher WA/OR Cascades and the highest northwest MT ranges.   
   Much of the Northwest gets moderate precip with the second wave,   
   Day 3 snow probs for >6" are 50-80% for the WA/OR Cascades above   
   4000ft and across western MT/central and northern ID and northwest   
   WY ranges.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!6KUdSlc3x9gxIvJgJ8CClYrdLr-MkgN3h8WhznNitWZ-i=   
   rLKGoqcAEia_Z2pz_5BOuh2Xqg3C0gJPFrlj7Ux-nuxS00$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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