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   FOUS11 KWBC 060829   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   329 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Guidance continues to indicate a period of extreme cold will plague   
   the Northeast, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic states this   
   weekend before finally relaxing next week. For this extreme cold,   
   Key Messages have been issued which are linked below (Key Messages   
   1).   
      
   The driver of this cold will be a sharpening shortwave trough   
   digging across the Great Lakes today and then amplifying as it   
   pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. This should become a   
   closed low south of New England, with the overlap of LFQ diffluence   
   in a strengthening downstream jet streak with the strong height   
   falls at 500mb leading to a rapidly deepening surface low well   
   offshore. While this surface low itself will be too displaced from   
   the coast to bring notable weather impacts, its pressure gradient   
   will help enhance northerly winds across the region, driving an   
   arctic cold front southward, while an inverted trough pivots near   
   eastern New England Saturday before moving offshore. This will   
   result in three areas of potential heavy snowfall through Saturday.   
      
   1) Central Appalachians: the shortwave itself will cross the   
   Central Appalachians Friday morning into the afternoon, pushing the   
   strong front southeast beneath it. While some synoptic ascent into   
   a modestly moistening column will result in widespread light snow,   
   the heaviest accumulations are likely to occur within post-frontal   
   upslope ascent. This lift should maximize into the lower portions   
   of the deepening DGZ, and as moisture from the Great Lakes gets   
   advected southward, this will result in periods of heavy snowfall   
   for which the WPC prototype snowband tool suggests will exceed   
   1"/hr at times. The heaviest snowfall is expected Friday evening   
   through early Saturday morning before the column dries, and WPC   
   probabilities indicate a high risk (>70% chance) of at least 6   
   inches of snow across the higher terrain of WV, with locally 10+   
   inches possible, and at least 4 inches (50-70% chance) extending   
   from the Laurel Highlands down into the higher terrain of NC/TN.   
      
   2) Great Lakes: Although ice cover across the Lakes has increased   
   dramatically the past few weeks, the intense CAA behind this front   
   will still support some lake effect snow (LES) across the open   
   waters, especially south of Lake Ontario and Lake Superior D1. The   
   intensity of this snowfall should be somewhat muted, but WPC   
   probabilities for 4+ inches reach as high as 70-90% south of Lake   
   Ontario, with slightly lower probabilities across the eastern U.P.   
   and northwest L.P. of MI.   
      
   3) Eastern New England: The most challenging aspect of this   
   forecast is what happens across eastern New England, especially   
   along the coast from near Portland, ME, through Boston, MA, and   
   onto Cape Cod. Strong N/NE winds within the CAA should produce   
   ocean enhanced snowfall (OES) especially for Cape Ann and Cape Cod,   
   with some enhancement possible anywhere along the coast from Boston   
   southward. At the same time, the guidance, while very different in   
   its spatial positioning, all show some degree of an inverted trough   
   pivoting across the region, with low-level convergence aiding in   
   ascent. While there is uncertainty in the placement, and this   
   should come into better focus as we get more steadily into the   
   high-res windows, there is nearly uniform agreement of this   
   occurring, and with some fgen efficiently intersecting the lowering DGZ,   
   this will likely result in periods of heavy snowfall. Despite the=20   
   uncertainty, WPC probabilities have crept upwards to above 50% for   
   4+ inches from near Portsmouth, NH south to Boston and Plymouth,   
   MA,but some locally higher amounts are probable as reflected by a=20   
   lot of spread in the WSE plumes for coastal areas.   
      
   Finally, although not expected to be widespread, scattered snow=20   
   squalls are possible along the arctic front as it digs southward=20   
   Friday night into Saturday from New York state down through central   
   WV and into New England. Any convective snow showers or squalls=20   
   that develop will contain brief heavy snow rates and strong winds,=20   
   leading to hazardous travel.   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies...=20   
   Day 3...   
      
   A shortwave emerging from the Northern Pacific will track eastward,   
   moving onshore WA/OR Sunday night and then deamplifying as it   
   approaches the Northern Rockies by the end of the forecast period.   
   Downstream of this impulse, a period of enhanced moisture advection   
   will occur, both in response to modest WAA as well as a weak upper   
   jet streak pivoting into Canada. Together, this will drive IVT   
   onshore in a corridor from OR through the Northern Rockies, which   
   has a high probabilities (>80%) of exceeding 250 kg/m/s. The   
   duration of this IVT is likely to be limited, and the corresponding   
   WAA will surge snow levels up to 5000-6000 ft before falling the   
   latter half of D3 (due to CAA behind an accompanying cold front)   
   back down to 2000-3000 ft. However, most of the precipitation   
   should occur within the warm plume, and this is reflected by WPC   
   probabilities indicating a high risk (>70% chance) for at least 4   
   inches of snow for the higher terrain of the Cascades and into=20   
   parts of the Northern Rockies near Glacier NP, and into the=20   
   Sawtooth/Salmon River ranges.   
      
   Weiss   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7nWiQeLPwPN72vtw9t41hN6JrVIti4KCD6SQD2TX7WWPP=   
   ZZgrW4eB3_Vk4vl1tNvlEpBd3HXuZLoyLL7HuFiyW4fumA$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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