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   ACUS48 KWNS 060752   
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   SPC AC 060750   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026   
      
   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over   
   northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress   
   eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day   
   6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will   
   support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture   
   northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states   
   through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is   
   possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited   
   by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.   
      
   By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the   
   south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from   
   parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level   
   flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over   
   portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will   
   develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into   
   Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be   
   possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model   
   run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture   
   return.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 02/06/2026   
      
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