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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 060506   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 060505   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1105 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026   
      
   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities will remain generally near or below 10   
   percent across the U.S. today through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   While a blocking high centered inland of the U.S. Pacific coast   
   becomes increasingly suppressed, it appears that large-scale ridging   
   will be maintained across the Pacific coast through the Canadian   
   Prairies and U.S. Great Plains.  Some expansion east of the Canadian   
   Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains is possible, but a vigorous   
   short wave trough of Arctic origins likely will reinforce amplified   
   larger-scale mid-level troughing across and east of the Atlantic   
   Seaboard, as it digs south-southeast of the Great Lakes through Mid   
   Atlantic region today through tonight.  Beneath a confluent   
   mid-level regime in the wake of this feature, cold surface ridging   
   is forecast to build across the Mississippi Valley through   
   Appalachians vicinity, with the leading edge of the reinforcing cold   
   intrusion advancing as far south as the Florida peninsula and   
   northeastern Gulf Basin through central Texas by 12Z Saturday.   
      
   Near and inland of the southern California through Baja coast, broad   
   weak mid-level troughing is forecast to linger and become reinforced   
   by a digging short wave perturbation emerging from the upstream   
   southern mid-latitude Pacific.  Models indicate that this may   
   include the evolution of a notable mid-level low, which probably   
   will remain offshore of the southern California and northern Baja   
   coast through this period.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Models suggest that modest moisture return off the subtropical   
   eastern Pacific, coincident with steepening lapse rates aided by   
   mid-level cooling, will contribute to weak destabilization across   
   parts of California into the Great Basin today through tonight.   
   With the evolving low and associated coldest mid-level temperatures   
   forecast to remain offshore, forcing to support convective   
   development inland remains unclear.  Spread among the model output   
   adds to the uncertainty.   
      
   Orographic forcing might contribute to potential for thunderstorm   
   development with sufficient boundary-layer destabilization, and   
   there appears a consensus among the various ensemble calibrated   
   thunderstorm guidance for minimum threshold thunderstorm   
   probabilities across at least western portions of the Transverse   
   Ranges of southern California.  Eastward into the San Gabriel   
   Mountains, and northward into portions of the southern Sierra   
   Nevada, thunderstorm probabilities appear a bit less at this time.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/06/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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