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   FOUS11 KWBC 051918   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   218 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Fri Feb 06 2026 - 00Z Mon Feb 09 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A deep core low persists north of Hudson Bay through this weekend   
   with a focused shortwave trough plunging south from Manitoba   
   tonight, crossing the Great Lakes Friday, before deepening as it   
   pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Rapid surface low development   
   is expected well east of New England on Saturday as surface high   
   pressure builds over the Upper Midwest, forming an intense pressure   
   gradient across the Northeast. A notable surge of Arctic air is   
   expected Friday night across the Northeast.   
      
   Extremely cold temperatures this weekend are discussed further in   
   Key Messages which are linked below.   
      
   The NW flow behind this shortwave will have ascent, but the   
   continental air and mostly ice covered Great Lakes will limit snow   
   rates across the Midwest. However, this NW flow will have   
   topographic enhancement over the central Appalachians Friday   
   afternoon/evening where rates will locally reach 1"/hr. The arctic   
   surge over this area is overnight Friday with powerful, potentially   
   damaging wind gusts as precip rates decrease. Day 1.5 snow probs   
   for >6" are 40-80% from the western edge of MD down the Allegheny   
   Highlands into western VA as well as the higher Apps along the   
   NC/TN border.   
      
   As the surface low strengthens and the whole system becomes   
   develops well off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, increasing=20   
   NW flow over an inverted trough will focus some moisture and=20   
   ascent across New England (outside of Maine).=20   
   Then on Saturday night there is potential for a focused snow band   
   to develop near of over Cape Cod which would have ocean   
   enhancements. As of now Day 2 snow probs for >4" are 40-60% for the   
   southern shore of Lake Ontario, along the spine of the Green Mtns,   
   and generally 30% over eastern Mass down through Long Island.   
   Values for >4" then peak around 40% over Cape Cod for Day 2.5.=20   
      
   Finally, although not expected to be widespread, scattered snow   
   squalls are possible along the arctic front as it digs southward   
   Friday night into Saturday from New York state down through central   
   WV. Any convective snow showers or squalls that develop will=20   
   contain brief heavy snow rates and strong winds, leading to=20   
   hazardous travel.   
      
      
   ...Northwest...   
   Day 3...   
      
   Low pressure pushing northeast into the Gulf of Alaska Saturday   
   directs an elevated plume of moisture through the Pacific Northwest   
   Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Snow levels on the Cascades=20   
   rise to 6000 in WA and 7000ft in OR Saturday afternoon before   
   dropping to 5000ft in WA Sunday in moderate precip rates. Day 3   
   PWPF for >6" are 40-80% for the Cascade Volcanoes (above key   
   mountain passes) and the massif around North Cascades NP.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Cold Key Messages are in effect and linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7KI4dATxiwGQnZk853B_9AzlywkL5ZjkFRAIwG6I2X03r=   
   r6vHEFHnXsemfiTESuFux8NmHZX027MEkGNOGzSd9PYYDg$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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