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   907    
   AXNT20 KNHC 051050   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings...   
      
   A Strong Cold Front:   
   A strong cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast today is   
   going to produce widespread fresh to near gale-force SW to NW   
   winds off eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. By this evening,   
   these winds near 30N76W will reach gale-force, along with 9 to 11   
   ft seas. As the cold front pushes farther eastward Fri and Fri   
   night, gale-force winds will spread into the central Atlantic,    
   north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Peak seas will also build to    
   between 12 and 15 ft. This area of gale-force winds and very rough   
   seas will shift farther eastward on Sat, and then northeastward    
   to north of 31N on Sat night.   
      
   A Deepening Low Pressure:   
   A low pressure is expected to enter the Atlantic along the North   
   Carolina coast on Fri night, then rapidly deepen as it track   
   eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area   
   of westerly gale-force winds north of 28N between 62W and 72W.   
   Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to   
   move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with   
   seas build higher to between 22 and 29 ft. Once the low has    
   pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic,    
   conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night.   
      
   Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event:    
   Seas at 12 to 16 ft in large NW swell, north of 27N and east of   
   45W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift    
   east of 35W by early Fri morning.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts    
   issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  and   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php   
    for more details on all three events above.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea,   
   then curves southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues west-    
   southwestward from 03N19W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate    
   convection is occurring near both features from 01S to 07N    
   between 10W and 33W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A cold front curves southwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to just     
   north of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force N to NNE winds   
   and rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. Ahead of the front, a   
   surface trough extends along the offshore waters from Tampico to   
   Veracruz, generating some showers. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds   
   are ahead of the front across the E Bay of Campeche and the far SE basin.   
      
   For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move southward    
   across the Gulf waters through early this afternoon. The front    
   will continue to bring fresh to near gale-force N wind and rough    
   seas across much of the Gulf through early this evening when    
   conditions are forecast to improve from west to east. High    
   pressure will build over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front and    
   will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin    
   through Mon.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   The tail of a stationary front extends from the northern Leeward    
   Islands westward to the SE offshore waters of Puerto Rico. A   
   surfarce trough extends from south-central Cuba to the eastern   
   Gulf of Honduras and is generating scattered showers and tstms,   
   including the Grand Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a tight pressure   
   gradient between the Atlantic subropical ridge and the low   
   pressure over NW Colombia continue to support a broad area of   
   fresh to locally strong trade winds over the central Caribbean    
   where seas are up to 9 ft.    
      
   For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front is forecast to   
   dissipate this morning. A cold front, currently moving across the   
   Gulf of Mexico, will reach the NW Caribbean early this afternoon   
   and will merge with a surface trough that currently extends from    
   south-central Cuba to the offshore waters of E Honduras. Fresh to    
   strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast    
   to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight and    
   from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken.    
   Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean    
   associated with the front will persist through Sat, diminishing to   
   moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale   
   Warnings and Significant Swell.   
      
   A cold front extends from 31N20W to 25N35W to 22N48W where it   
   stalls and then continues across the far SE offshore waters,    
   to the northern Leeward Islands. The remainder subtropical   
   Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge centered by a   
   1024 mb high just E of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh SW winds are   
   ongoing over the central and NE Florida offshore waters ahead of   
   the new cold front. Winds of similar speed are along the    
   cold/stationary boundary.    
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to    
   lift N today while weakening. A cold front will move off NE    
   Florida today. Gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on    
   either side of the front, across the waters N of 26N, from this    
   evening through Fri evening. The front will reach from near    
   Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 30N55W to Puerto    
   Rico Fri night into early Sat. Following this front, a strong low    
   pressure building N of the forecast region could bring a second    
   round of gale-force winds and very rough to high seas across the N   
   waters N of 25N Sat through Sun.    
      
   $$   
   Ramos   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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