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   FOUS11 KWBC 050819   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   319 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 08 2026   
      
      
   ...The Carolinas...=20   
   Day 1...   
      
   A deep shortwave trough will track across the northern Gulf and   
   then off the Florida coast through this aftn. This will help   
   strengthen secondary low pressure off the coast of the Carolinas,   
   with some lingering moisture extending back onshore, at least   
   through the morning. However, forecast soundings indicate that   
   pronounced dry air above the surface will inhibit much in the way   
   of precipitation. However, what does fall, will occur in a sub-   
   freezing column, leading to a continuation of very light freezing   
   rain or freezing drizzle for a few hours after 12Z across the   
   eastern Carolinas. This is reflected by WPC probabilities that   
   indicate a 10-30% chance (locally 50% chance) of more than 0.01" of   
   ice, highest from Cape Fear through the Outer banks.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A fast moving shortwave diving out of Manitoba will race southeast   
   today, reaching the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday morning. This   
   lead impulse will be followed almost immediately by a second, more   
   strung out, shortwave, with this secondary impulse responsible for   
   driving a strong arctic cold front southward beneath it. This   
   secondary impulse will help develop a surface wave of low pressure   
   across Upstate NY Friday evening, with this low scooting rapidly   
   eastward to off the New England coast by the end of D2. The lead   
   cold front will trail off this low, with a secondary reinforcing   
   surge of arctic air occurring Saturday behind a secondary front.   
      
   Together, these features will result in an extended period of   
   moderate ascent, but in an environment with normal to below normal   
   PWs on the sharpening NW flow. Although the moisture will be   
   modest, the forcing will be sufficient to wring out snowfall across   
   the area, although most accumulation will be very light. There may   
   be a few exceptions:   
      
   1) Upslope snow into the Central Appalachians. This is expected   
   behind the first cold front beginning Friday aftn and then   
   intensifying Friday night before waning Saturday evening.   
   Intensifying N/NW flow will become quite strong and direct into the   
   terrain, with the cooling column providing a deepening DGZ into   
   which this ascent will maximize. Although atmospheric moisture is   
   modest, this flow will direct at least some Great Lakes enhanced   
   moisture to improve the potential for heavy upslope snowfall.   
   Initially, Froude numbers Friday and Friday night suggest critical=20   
   or blocked flow indicating the heaviest snowfall will be along or=20   
   just upwind of the Appalachians crests, but as flow becomes=20   
   unblocked on Saturday, more snow may spill over towards the east.=20   
   Still, the heaviest accumulations are likely in the higher terrain=20   
   and upwind areas, where WPC probabilities for the entire event=20   
   suggest a high risk (>70% chance) for at least 8" of snow, with=20   
   locally 12+" possible (30% chance).   
      
   The increasing W/NW flow behind the arctic front will also support   
   some enhanced lake effect snow (LES), especially in the favored=20   
   more N/NW snow belts south of Lake Ontario and Lake Superior. LES   
   is not expected to be extremely heavy or prolonged, but WPC   
   probabilities indicate a 70-90% chance for at least 4" south of=20   
   Lake Ontario, and a 30-50% chance across the eastern U.P. of=20   
   Michigan.   
      
   Finally, as a surface low strengthens well offshore and east of=20   
   the Mid-Atlantic states, increasing NW flow with a potential=20   
   inverted trough will focus some moisture and ascent across eastern=20   
   New England from near Portland, ME southward to Cape Cod, MA. The=20   
   combination of onshore flow and ocean effect snow combined with the   
   potential focused inverted trough may enhance snowfall along the=20   
   coast. The intensity of this snowfall is still quite uncertain as=20   
   most of it is early D3, but these inverted troughs can sometimes=20   
   pivot favorably for locally much heavier snowfall. Confidence is=20   
   modest at this time range due to wide variations in the models, but   
   current WPC probabilities indicate a 50-70% chance for at least 4"   
   of accumulation from Cape Ann southward through Cape Cod,=20   
   including the Boston metro area.   
      
   Finally, although not expected to be widespread, scattered snow   
   squalls are possible along the arctic front as it digs southward   
   Friday night into Saturday across the Northeast. Any convective   
   snow showers or squalls that develop will contain brief heavy snow   
   rates and strong winds, leading to hazardous travel.   
      
   Extremely cold temperatures this weekend have also prompted the   
   issuance of Key Messages related to this event. Those are linked   
   below.   
      
      
   Weiss   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9APqMvp9Avm9tP_63VeqcPXrzpjBn4ND1yCgQrSuQdPno=   
   TECi6gsEfU5JgOPvZFmrGY8NS2tW8VKC-qRNjuSxNNPVTI$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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