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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1104 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026   
      
   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the   
   U.S. today through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of a significant, progressive short wave trough, models   
   indicate that an initially vigorous perturbation across the southern   
   mid-latitude Pacific will be forced northeastward/eastward toward   
   the North American Pacific coast today through tonight.  As it   
   approaches a prominent mid/upper high which has evolved inland of   
   the U.S coast, it is forecast to split, with one of the emerging   
   perturbations accelerating toward the British Columbia coast while   
   the other digs toward the southern California coast.  Downstream of   
   the latter impulse, broader weak troughing initially offshore of   
   southern California and Baja is forecast to slowly accelerate   
   north/northeastward inland of coastal areas.   
      
   While models indicate that the blocking ridge will probably undergo   
   notable weakening today through tonight, it appears that amplified   
   ridging will generally be maintained across the Canadian/U.S.   
   Rockies, with another significant short wave trough of Arctic   
   origins digging downstream, across the southwestern Hudson Bay   
   vicinity.  It appears that this will be accompanied by a deepening   
   surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front advancing across the   
   international border into portions of the Upper Midwest and Great   
   Lakes region by late tonight.   
      
   This is likely to occur coincident with strong downstream surface   
   cyclogenesis, offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard through the   
   southern mid-latitude western Atlantic, trailed by a cold front   
   advancing south of the Florida peninsula through the Bahamas and   
   western Caribbean.   
      
   ...Florida...   
   Inland of the Gulf coast, across the remainder of the central and   
   southern peninsula, with the mid-level cold core continuing to trail   
   to the northwest of the surface cold front, and mid/upper support   
   for ascent perhaps weakening ahead of the front, forecast soundings   
   indicate minimal potential for pre-frontal thunderstorm development   
   today.   
      
   ...Southwest...   
   Model forecast soundings, particularly the Rapid Refresh, suggest   
   that steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and moisture   
   return from the subtropical eastern Pacific, may lead to the   
   development of weak conditional instability across parts of southern   
   California through the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley by late   
   tonight.  However, this may mostly occur in the wake of an initial   
   short wave impulse overspreading the region, with little potential   
   for thunderstorm activity through 12Z Friday.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 02/05/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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