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   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   242 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Thu Feb 05 2026 - 00Z Sun Feb 08 2026   
      
      
   ...Southern Mid-Atlantic...   
   Day 1...   
      
   An area of low pressure riding along a cold front that is tracking   
   across the Southeast will bring some wintry precipitation on the   
   northern fringe of the precipitation shield along the VA/NC border   
   tonight. Rain and a wintry mix will change over to snow, while for   
   portions of central and eastern North Carolina, mid-level drying   
   with a slow exit of the low level moisture will support a period of   
   freezing drizzle, which could accumulate to a few hundredths of an   
   inch on untreated surfaces tonight. Both precipitation and   
   associated impacts should end within a couple hours of sunrise   
   Thursday.=20   
      
   WPC probabilities of 0.01 inches of ice is around 80% for portions   
   of North Carolina between Greenville and Fayetteville, and up to   
   30% for 0.10 inches of ice. Snow probabilities for an inch of snow   
   are between 20-40% along the VA/NC border, and up to 50% along I-81   
   southwest of Roanoke, VA.=20   
      
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A warm front will push into the Upper Midwest and western Great=20   
   Lakes, aided by a 140kt upper level jet over south central Canada=20   
   on Thursday. Light and broad WAA-driven snow is forecast for=20   
   northeastern MN and across the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of=20   
   Michigan. This will be followed by a strong Arctic cold front that=20   
   will dive to the south and east across the region through the day=20   
   on Friday. The left exit region of this jet combined with a potent=20   
   vort max will support large-scale forcing for ascent across the=20   
   Great Lakes in the wake of the lead light snow. With the passage of   
   the Arctic front, snow squalls are possible from MI and western NY   
   to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night and continuing=20   
   through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger showers and squalls   
   are looking increasingly likely to spill over the central=20   
   Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in the afternoon,   
   possibly impacting the evening commute on Friday. Upslope snow in=20   
   the central Appalachians should maximize Friday afternoon/evening=20   
   as the front moves through.=20   
      
   WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are low (10-30%)=20   
   across the U.P. of Michigan and west of Traverse City. Over western   
   NY and NW PA, surface low may move through the region and spur=20   
   more widespread snow along/behind the front and as winds turn more=20   
   northerly, picking up moisture off Lake Ontario. There, WPC=20   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are 20-40%. While there   
   is a considerable amount of ice cover on the Great Lakes, just   
   under 50% according to the USNIC, there remains enough open water   
   on all but Lake Erie to expect there to be at least some   
   contribution of lake moisture to the column as the front moves   
   through. In addition to upslope into the U.P. of Michigan and   
   western New York, higher snow totals can be expected in these   
   areas.   
      
   Finally, over eastern WV, amounts will likely be the highest in=20   
   the region and WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are=20   
   >70%, especially above 2000ft. Considerable upslope flow with   
   northwesterly winds orthogonal to the Appalachians should wring out   
   the most atmospheric moisture, resulting in the greatest snow   
   totals here, hence the highest probabilities.   
      
   In the wake of the Arctic front, a blast of bitterly cold air will   
   encompass much of the Northeast heading into the weekend. For more   
   details, please reference the Extreme Cold Key Messages in the=20   
   link provided below.   
      
   Fracasso/Wegman   
      
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-L09wy298h8p0HixTwZRXJh9yemxGI5nIpYl1RfnPrfk3=   
   P4EYhRUXRbBhtoQEcTsBOik16JFMlJIR31mdQRa5gP9iBg$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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