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   FOUS11 KWBC 040716   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   216 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 07 2026   
      
      
   ...Southern Mid-Atlantic...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A cold front over the Southeast this morning and area of low=20   
   pressure over the southern Appalachians will make a slow march=20   
   eastward today with rain over much of the region but some light=20   
   snow on the northern side of the precipitation shield. Trailing=20   
   shortwave energy from the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South will slow the=20   
   front a bit tonight as temperatures cool just enough over southern=20   
   VA into northern NC for snow to fall and accumulate. In addition,=20   
   lingering moisture over eastern NC tonight combined with mid-level=20   
   drying may lead to some freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Though=20   
   accumulations will be light (0.01-0.05"), any freezing rain is=20   
   impactful to untreated surfaces. Precipitation will end from west=20   
   to east Thursday.   
      
   WPC probabilities of at least 2 inches of snow are 20-50% over=20   
   southwestern VA and barely 10% over northern/northeastern NC.=20   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A warm front will push into the Upper Midwest and western Great=20   
   Lakes, aided by a 140kt upper level jet over south central Canada=20   
   on Thursday. Light and broad WAA-driven snow is forecast for=20   
   northeastern MN and across the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of=20   
   Michigan. This will be followed by a strong Arctic cold front that=20   
   will dive to the south and east across the region through the day=20   
   on Friday. The left exit region of this jet combined with a potent=20   
   vort max will support large-scale forcing for ascent across the=20   
   Great Lakes in the wake of the lead light snow. With the passage of   
   the Arctic front, snow squalls are possible from MI and western NY   
   to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night and continuing=20   
   through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger showers and squalls   
   are looking increasingly likely to spill over the central=20   
   Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in the afternoon,   
   possibly impacting the evening commute on Friday. Upslope snow in=20   
   the central Appalachians should maximize Friday afternoon/evening=20   
   as the front moves through.=20   
      
   WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are low (10-40%)=20   
   across the U.P. of Michigan and west of Traverse City. Over western   
   NY and NW PA, surface low may move through the region and spur=20   
   more widespread snow along/behind the front and as winds turn more=20   
   northerly, picking up moisture off Lake Ontario. There, WPC=20   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are 20-50%. Finally,=20   
   over eastern WV, amounts will likely be the highest in the region=20   
   and WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >70%,=20   
   especially above 2000ft.=20   
      
   In the wake of the Arctic front, a blast of bitterly cold air will   
   encompass much of the Northeast heading into the weekend. For more   
   details, please reference the Extreme Cold Key Messages in the=20   
   link provided below.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7tsD76lSRVfHX36EwdU0bUH9sv7W5vUQCPqiaIzI-ixFR=   
   Gd4LUnOvsu70q0yzEm9RwTuYw8BtsBuDJVbB7gEJeEI6qI$=20   
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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