TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169190.weather@1:2320/105 2dea1ac6   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 031943   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 031941   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0141 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026   
      
   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the   
   contiguous United States.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   Minor adjustments were made to bring the thunder line further north   
   into Middle Tennessee to account for trends over the last couple of   
   hours. Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged. See previous   
   discussion below for more information.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 02/03/2026   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026/   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of   
   a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale   
   deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of   
   several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and   
   southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these   
   waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,   
   with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take   
   this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians   
   today.   
      
   A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level   
   moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into   
   central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the   
   shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes   
   southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley.  However,   
   much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous   
   frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from   
   the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.   
   This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX   
   Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly   
   moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.   
   However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the   
   overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,   
   occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated   
   lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the   
   highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear   
   will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by   
   weak buoyancy.   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 120 16/0 18/0 19/10 37 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0   
   SEEN-BY: 123/25 126 130 180 755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100   
   SEEN-BY: 135/115 142/104 153/143 148 149 151 153 757 7715 154/10 110   
   SEEN-BY: 203/0 218/700 840 221/1 6 360 222/2 226/30 227/114 229/110   
   SEEN-BY: 229/134 206 300 307 317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832   
   SEEN-BY: 250/1 266/512 275/1000 280/5003 291/111 301/1 320/119 219   
   SEEN-BY: 320/319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66 342/11 200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 902/26 2320/0 105   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/304 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 61 119 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 1 320/219 229/426