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   FOUS11 KWBC 031900   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   200 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Wed Feb 04 2026 - 00Z Sat Feb 07 2026   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   Increasing moisture and warm air advection ahead of a weak surface   
   low over the Mid South combined with large-scale forcing for=20   
   ascent within the left exit region of a strengthening 100kt+ upper=20   
   level jet streak will yield a swath of snow from eastern KY eastward   
   to the central Appalachians tonight into early Wednesday. Amounts=20   
   will be light (Minor impacts per the WSSI) and WPC probabilities=20   
   for snowfall >2" are 30-60% mainly across the higher elevations of=20   
   WV and southwest VA.   
      
   Some light snow should also crest the central Appalachians into=20   
   parts of the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into Wednesday morning, but   
   this can sometimes dry up east of I-81. WPC probabilities for 1"=20   
   of snow are generally <15% along the I-66/Rt 50 corridor across=20   
   northern VA, DC, MD, and into DE. Still, any snow combined with the   
   recent cold could be enough to cause localized travel concerns,   
   particularly during the Wednesday morning commute.   
      
   As the front continues southeastward, trailing shortwave energy may   
   slow the southern portion of the front over the Southeast, allowing   
   another weak area of low pressure to form over the southern=20   
   Appalachians on Wednesday. As the low moves slowly through GA/SC=20   
   Wednesday evening and off the coast early Thursday, moisture will=20   
   linger over southern VA and much of northern/western NC where=20   
   temperatures are marginally supportive of snow. During the=20   
   overnight hours, dynamic cooling could support some light=20   
   accumulations around an inch or so across southern VA and northern   
   NC, especially across the higher elevations of southwestern VA and   
   northwest NC where WPC probabilities of >2" of snow are 20-40%.   
      
   In the wake of the departing low pressure system, lingering low-=20   
   level upslope moisture combined with mid-level drying may lead to a   
   period of freezing drizzle across parts of eastern KY, southwest=20   
   VA, eastern TN, and western NC late tonight into Wednesday morning.   
   Anywhere the freezing drizzle is more persistent could produce a=20   
   light glaze of ice. Additionally, enough northerly component of the   
   wind could drain some sub-freezing boundary layer air into far=20   
   southeastern VA and eastern NC, supporting light icing of around=20   
   0.05" or so later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.=20   
   While any ice is hazardous, the icing noted above could be more=20   
   problematic than usual due to the recent winter storm(s).   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Day 3...   
      
   A 140kt upper level jet over south central Canada Thursday will=20   
   help push a warm front through the western Great Lakes, followed by   
   a strong Arctic cold front that will dive to the south and east across   
   the region through the day on Friday. The left exit region of this   
   jet combined with a potent vort max will increasingly support=20   
   large scale forcing for ascent, with weak surface low development=20   
   possible downstream of the western Great Lakes. This will support=20   
   widespread snow showers and the potential for snow squalls from   
   MI and western NY to OH, PA, and WV starting late Thursday night=20   
   and continuing through the day on Friday. Some of the stronger=20   
   showers and squalls are looking increasingly likely to spill over=20   
   the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic later in   
   the afternoon, possibly impacting the evening commute. WPC=20   
   probabilities for >2" of snow are 40-70% across parts of MI,=20   
   northeast OH, northwest PA, and the higher elevations of southwest=20   
   PA and WV. Probabilities for >4" of snow are 10-20% for portions of   
   the U.P. of MI, northeast OH, and WV.=20   
      
   In the wake of the Arctic front, a blast of bitterly cold air will   
   encompass much of the Northeast heading into the weekend. For more   
   details, please reference the Extreme Cold Key Messages in the link   
   provided below.   
      
      
   Miller/Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5j_1Fl9dotMFlsl07RquALPtLY120Rf8RXpm3UvO9h2Aq=   
   WTyEVokCe1dREqejgH5zKFQcTSSV5HeegGtRiqqlHSH2qw$=20   
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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