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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 031616   
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   SPC AC 031615   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1015 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026   
      
   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the   
   contiguous United States.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Upper pattern is expected to amplify today, largely a consequence of   
   a deepening central/eastern CONUS upper trough. This large-scale   
   deepening will be fostered by the progression and evolution of   
   several shortwave troughs as they move through the western and   
   southern periphery of the parent upper troughing. The first of these   
   waves is currently moving southeastward through the Lower MO Valley,   
   with continued east-southeastward/eastward motion expected to take   
   this wave across the Mid-South, TN Valley, and central Appalachians   
   today.   
      
   A modest warm sector precedes this lead wave, with some low-level   
   moisture return currently noted across the TX Coastal Plains into   
   central and east TX. Some moisture return today will continue as the   
   shortwave progresses eastward and an associated cold front pushes   
   southeastward across TX and the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley.  However,   
   much of the central Gulf basin remains fairly dry due to previous   
   frontal intrusions, likely limiting the overall moisture return from   
   the Lower MS Valley eastward across the remainder of the Southeast.   
   This will confine the better low-level moisture return to the TX   
   Gulf Coast and southwest LA. Warm-air advection across this modestly   
   moist portion of the warm sector could contribute to some buoyancy.   
   However, tempered heating and poor lapse rates will mitigate the   
   overall magnitude of any buoyancy that does develop. Even so,   
   occasional updrafts should still be deep enough for isolated   
   lightning, particularly from east TX into central LA where the   
   highest thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. Modest vertical shear   
   will be in place, but the overall severe risk will be limited by   
   weak buoyancy.   
      
   ..Mosier/Thornton.. 02/03/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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