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   752    
   AXNT20 KNHC 031054   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Atlantic Significant Swell Event:    
   A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic   
   near 31N48W to just NE of the offshore waters of Puerto Rico near   
   20N65W where it stalls and continues SW to NW Colombia. Large NW   
   swell behind this front is producing 12 to 16 ft seas across the   
   western and central Atlantic, between 42W and 71W. The cold front   
   will move east-northeasward across the central and eastern   
   Atlantic and move inland NW Africa Thu evening. Large long-period   
   NW swell in the wake of the front will continue to produce 12 to   
   15 ft seas, affecting the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters   
   through Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters   
   Forecasts at websites:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm   
   and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php  for more information.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near    
   10N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues   
   west-southwestward from 05N17W to 02N28W to 01N41W. Numerous    
   moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 07N    
   between 04W and 27W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1029 mb high to    
   near Tampico, Mexico is dominating the entire Gulf. The gradient   
   of pressure between the ridge and lower pressure over N Texas and   
   central United States is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds   
   over the far western Gulf, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds   
   over the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche.     
      
   For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the far western basin    
   will persist through late today. The next cold front will enter    
   the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the    
   Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds    
   and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to   
   diminish across the Gulf area Thu night into Fri. High pressure    
   will build in the wake of the front Sat.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A stationary front extends from La Mona Passage to northern    
   Colombia where it is helping to induce scattered showers. Fresh to   
   near gale-force NNE winds and rough seas are noted in the wake of   
   the front, affecting both La Mona Passage and the Windward   
   Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the NW   
   Caribbean with rough seas between Jamaica and E Honduras. In the   
   SE Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate and seas to 6 ft.   
      
   For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate late tonight   
   into Wed. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central    
   Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as    
   high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture    
   associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move    
   westward across the central Caribbean today, reaching the coast of   
   Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected    
   to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to near    
   gale-force N winds and building seas. The front will move quickly    
   across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of    
   Honduras Thu night into Fri while weakening. Winds and seas in the   
   central Caribbean will improve Sat.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for details on the    
   significant swell event.    
      
   A cold front extends from 31N48W to 20N65W where it becomes    
   stationary and continues SW across the Mona Passage to NW Colombia.   
   Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 25N.    
   Very rough seas to 16 ft, in long period NW swell, are found in    
   the wake of the front. Rough seas are also ahead of the front. The   
   remainder basin is under the influence of surface ridging and   
   devoid of convection. Over the tropical waters, winds are moderate   
   to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough.      
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will    
   continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will    
   remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the    
   northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will    
   begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast    
   to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to near    
   gale-force winds and building seas is expected with the next cold    
   front, which is forecast to extend from Bermuda to the Dominican    
   Republic by Fri morning and move E of the area on Sun.   
      
   $$   
   Ramos   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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