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   FOUS11 KWBC 030804   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   304 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A weak system moving through the Great Lakes this morning will spread   
   light snow showers over the region with some lake effect snow   
   following in its wake. Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are likely   
   across portions of the U.P. of Michigan and near Watertown, NY. WPC   
   probabilities of >4" are low (10-20%).   
      
   Day 3...   
      
   A 140kt jet over south central Canada Thursday will help push a   
   warm front through the western Great Lakes, followed by a strong   
   arctic cold front that will cross into the region by Friday   
   morning. This will bring a period of snow focused on Michigan which   
   will lie near/north of the stronger height falls along the fronts.   
   Through 12Z Friday, generally light snow but increasing winds over   
   the region will usher in much colder air. WPC probabilities for at   
   least 4 inches of snow through 12Z Fri are low (10%) but blowing   
   snow could be the bigger hazard, especially near the lake shores.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A shortwave over the Corn Belt this morning will reach the Ohio   
   Valley this evening. Ahead of this wave, weak surface low pressure   
   will develop over the Lower MS Valley, helping to draw Gulf   
   moisture northward. The increasing moisture and warm air advection   
   combined with large-scale forcing for ascent within the left exit   
   region of a strengthening 250mb 100kt+ jet streak over the Mid-   
   South will yield a swath of banded snow from southeast IN and   
   southern OH eastward to the central Appalachians today into tonight.   
   Amounts will be light (Minor impacts per the WSSI) and WPC   
   probabilities for snowfall >2" are 30-60% across a fairly narrow   
   corridor from northern KY (CVG) eastward along and just north of   
   the Ohio River and into WV. Banded snowfall could also lead to   
   localized higher amounts, with low but non-zero probabilities of   
   >4" around 5-10%. Upslope enhancement may also push accumulations   
   above 4" in the higher elevations of WV, with probabilities of   
   20-40% mainly above 3000ft.   
      
   Some light snow should crest the central Appalachians into parts   
   of the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but   
   this can sometimes dry up east of I-81. WPC probabilities for 1" of   
   snow are generally <15% along the I-66/Rt 50 corridor across   
   northern VA, DC, MD, and into DE. Still, any snow combined with   
   the recent cold could be enough to cause localized travel   
   concerns.   
      
   As the front continues southeastward, trailing shortwave energy may   
   slow the southern portion of the front over the Southeast, allowing   
   a weak area of low pressure to form over the southern Appalachians   
   on Wednesday. As the low moves slowly through GA/SC Wednesday   
   evening and off the coast early Thursday, moisture will linger over   
   southern VA and much of northern/western NC where temperatures are   
   marginally supportive of snow. During the overnight hours, dynamic   
   cooling could support some light accumulation of 1-2" over   
   southwestern VA and northern NC where WPC probabilities of >2" of   
   snow are 30-60%.   
      
   At the same time, enough northerly component of the wind could   
   drain some sub-freezing boundary layer air into eastern NC and   
   support light icing of around 0.01" or so. Any ice is hazardous,   
   but this could be more problematic than usual due to the recent   
   winter storm(s).   
      
      
   Fracasso/Miller   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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