TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 169168.weather@1:2320/105 2de95623   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 030544   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 030542   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1142 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   05 UTC surface observations depict modest moisture return ongoing   
   along the TX Gulf Coast into eastern TX as a surface low gradually   
   intensifies across northwest TX. Further north, a cold front   
   continues to advance southward into the southern Plains. A   
   combination of isentropic ascent preceding the front and more   
   focused lift along the front will support isolated to scattered   
   thunderstorm development by early afternoon from eastern TX into the   
   lower MS River Valley and possibly into parts of the TN Valley as   
   the front pushes southeast towards the Gulf.   
      
   Although dewpoints will likely increase to the upper 50s and low 60s   
   by late afternoon, warm mid-level temperatures observed in 00 UTC   
   soundings will yield modest buoyancy profiles characterized by   
   lifted indices between -1 to -3 C. Consequently, this will limit   
   updraft intensities and the overall potential for severe convection.   
   Latest CAM guidance, including the typically aggressive REFS,   
   support this idea and depict very weak signals for strong updrafts.   
      
   ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/03/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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