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   557    
   AXNT20 KNHC 021101   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds ahead and following an    
   Arctic cold front that extends from 31N56W to Puerto Rico to the    
   NW Colombia offshore waters will diminish to fresh to near gale    
   force speeds later this morning. Currently seas are in the range    
   of 18 to 24 ft behind the front N of 24N and W to near 74W, except   
   to near 78W N of the Bahamas. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are W of 74W to    
   the Bahamas and also N of the Bahamas W of 78W. Seas ahead of the    
   front are 10 to 14 ft E to near 55W and N of 28N. These sea    
   conditions will slowly subside to 12 ft by early Tue morning,    
   then to 8 to 10 ft late on Tue.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at    
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  for more information.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and    
   continues southwestward to 04N18W where it transitions to the    
   ITCZ, which continues to 01N35W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate   
   convection is from 03S to 04N between 20W and 40W.     
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building    
   across the area, with a 1032 mb high center located near 28N93W,    
   and a deepening low off the New England coast is maintaining    
   moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the eastern Gulf, and    
   moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are still    
   rough to 10 ft in the SE Gulf in NW to N swell. The highest of    
   the seas are found near and in the Yucatan Channel.    
      
   For the forecast, rough seas to 10 ft over the SE Gulf will    
   subside later this morning. Afterward, a high building eastward    
   will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas for the    
   central and eastern Gulf. For the western Gulf, a period of fresh    
   to strong southerly winds are anticipated from this evening    
   through Tue morning. Another cold front is expected to enter the    
   northern Gulf on Wed, then sweep southward across the Gulf through   
   Thu night. The front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds    
   and rough seas.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A strong Arctic cold front extends from Puerto Rico southwest to   
   the NW Colombia offshores. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and    
   rough seas follow the front with seas to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh   
   trade winds are ongoing in the SE basin with moderate seas.    
   Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and    
   near the front between Hispaniola and NW Colombia.   
      
   For the forecast, the Arctic cold front will move across Puerto    
   Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then will stall from the    
   northern Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean tonight    
   into Tue morning and dissipate Tue night. Strong to near-gale    
   force N to NE winds and rough seas behind this front will    
   gradually shift eastward from the western Caribbean to the central   
   Caribbean through Tue. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually    
   diminish across the central Caribbean by Wed evening. On Thu,    
   another cold front is expected to approach the NW Caribbean and    
   cause building seas and winds there toward the next weekend.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing   
   Gale Warning for sections of the western Atlantic.   
      
   Elsewhere, a cold front enters the far eastern Atlantic near    
   31N18W and continue to 27N30W, where it transitions to a weakening   
   stationary front to near 26N36W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds    
   are W of the front to near 30W and N of 28N. Seas are in the range   
   of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell with these winds. The weather pattern    
   for the rest of the basin is basically controlled by a 1027 mb    
   high center analyzed N of the area near 33N37W. Its related    
   gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh trades to exist S    
   of 24N and E of the Leeward Islands. Seas are in the range of 8 to   
   10 ft in NE to E swell over this area. Latest scatterometer    
   satellite data passes indicate moderate or weaker winds across the   
   remainder of the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes    
   and buoy observations reveal that rough seas cover the majority of   
   the remainder of the waters, slightly lower from 25N to 28N E of    
   51W to vicinity of the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, gale force winds ahead and    
   following the Artic cold front will diminish to fresh to near    
   gale force speeds by later this morning. Afterward, winds will    
   further diminish to gentle and moderate speeds on Tue as the front   
   pulls eastward and weaken. Dangerous seas at 24 ft will steadily    
   subside to 12 ft by Tue morning, then 8 to 10 ft late Tue. In the    
   long run, another cold front is going to move off the southeast    
   U.S. coast on Thu, resulting in building winds and seas north of    
   25N through the next weekend. Mariners are urged to remain    
   cautious through Mon and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.   
      
   $$   
   Ramos   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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