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   FOUS11 KWBC 021935   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   235 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 00Z Fri Feb 06 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A weak system will continue to spread light snow showers across   
   the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday with some lake effect snow   
   following in its wake. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are likely   
   across portions of MI and western NY, with localized 20-40%   
   probabilities of >4" in the U.P of MI and localized 40-60%   
   probabilities downwind of Lake Ontario.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A shortwave over the northern Plains will dive into the Mid-MS   
   Valley by Tuesday morning before reaching the Ohio Valley by   
   Tuesday evening. Ahead of this wave, weak surface low pressure will   
   develop over the Lower MS Valley, helping to draw Gulf moisture   
   northward. The increasing moisture and warm air advection combined   
   with large scale forcing for ascent within the left exit region of   
   a strengthening 250mb 100kt+ jet streak will yield a swath of   
   banded snow from southeast IN and southern OH Tuesday morning   
   eastward to the central Appalachians Tuesday evening into Wednesday   
   morning. WPC probabilities for snowfall >2" are 30-60% across a   
   fairly narrow corridor from southeast IN eastward along and just   
   north of the Ohio River and into WV. Banded snowfall could also   
   lead to localized higher amounts, with low but not zero   
   probabilities of >4" around 5-10%. Upslope enhancement may also   
   push accumulations above 4" in the higher elevations of WV, with   
   probabilities of 20-40% mainly above 3000ft.   
      
   Some light snow or flurries could survive the trip over the   
   central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday   
   night into Wednesday morning, but trends for even just 1" of snow   
   have been decreasing with probabilities now only 10-20% across   
   portions of northern VA, northern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Still,   
   any snow combined with the recent cold and timing of early morning   
   rush hour could be enough to cause localized travel concerns. What   
   could be more interesting and worth monitoring is how much more the   
   wave develops as it begins to exit the Mid-Atlantic coast   
   Wednesday afternoon and evening. Latest trends have been a bit more   
   wintry across parts of southern VA and northern NC, and while poor   
   thermals are likely limiting probabilities of accumulating   
   snowfall at the moment, a deeper wave and greater dynamic cooling   
   could change that in the coming days.   
      
   In between the transition from snow to rain, some light freezing   
   rain or drizzle is also possible with this wave over KY/TN into   
   VA/NC. Any ice is hazardous, but this could be more problematic   
   than usual due to the recent winter storm(s).   
      
      
   Miller   
      
      
   $$   
      
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