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   FOUS11 KWBC 020713   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   213 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Thu Feb 05 2026   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A weak shortwave and surface warm front will move through the   
   region this morning with some light snow for areas mainly above   
   4000ft, with snow levels rising sharply later today. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are >50% above 4000ft   
   or so.   
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Day 1-1.5...   
      
   Weak system will spread slight snow across the Great Lakes (1-2")   
   today into Tuesday with some lake effect snow behind it, mostly   
   over the U.P. of Michigan. There, WPC probabilities for at least 4   
   inches of snow are 20-40%.   
      
   ...Northern Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A shortwave in southern Canada will dive southeastward through   
   North Dakota this morning, with generally light to locally modest   
   snow along a thermal gradient. Some banded snow could develop and   
   support a few inches of snow, and WPC probabilities for at least 4   
   inches are 30-70% over north central North Dakota.   
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   The shortwave over the northern Plains Day 1 (above) will dive   
   into the Mid-MS Valley tomorrow morning and through the Ohio Valley   
   tomorrow evening. At the same time, Gulf moisture will lit   
   northeastward through the Lower MS Valley to yield some light snow   
   on the northern side of the precip shield. WAA-driven snow is   
   likely along the Ohio River Tuesday morning eastward to the central   
   Appalachians tomorrow evening and into early Wednesday, also   
   spreading to the Mid-Atlantic. Amounts will generally be light, but   
   some upslope enhancement in eastern WV could yield a few inches of   
   snow. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are around   
   30-40% above 3000ft. 1-3" of snow is possible (>50% chance) from   
   around Cincinnati eastward. Lower chances of just 1" are seen along   
   the I-95 corridor from DC to PHL, but this could coincide with the   
   Tuesday evening rush hour or possibly Wednesday morning depending   
   on the speed of the system.   
      
   Some light freezing rain or drizzle is also possible with this   
   wave over KY/TN into VA/NC. Any ice is hazardous, but this could be   
   more problematic than usual due to the recent winter storm(s).   
      
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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