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   FOUS30 KWBC 011825   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   125 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Feb 01 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth/Kleebauer   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Feb 04 2026   
      
   The guidance QPF signal for moderate to heavy rainfall in and near   
   MS does not reach any flash flooding threshold on its own.=20   
   However, there is an area of ice lingering in and near portions of=20   
   the Mid-South/Delta Region of MS -- deposited 7-8 days ago -- that   
   could become a more important aspect to consider for excessive   
   rainfall/flash flood concerns should the guidance/QPF maximum=20   
   preference shift northwest into that area. It's unclear either how   
   fast the icing -- with liquid content of 1-2" -- would melt. If it   
   doesn't melt substantially, there would be a risk of runoff if=20   
   heavy enough rain falls upon the ice. Can't rule out a Marginal=20   
   Risk at some point should the guidance QPF maximum and ice area=20   
   align better in later cycles.   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sojNtD7ETzzcrsJsjULNeUp1wd1E435lemrRxzSVuqf=   
   d5LdTnwf8O2AYNcRIs-Zjse8BFCzyatxNw4qKsoqBRRe5MM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sojNtD7ETzzcrsJsjULNeUp1wd1E435lemrRxzSVuqf=   
   d5LdTnwf8O2AYNcRIs-Zjse8BFCzyatxNw4qKsoqrmFDm_k$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7sojNtD7ETzzcrsJsjULNeUp1wd1E435lemrRxzSVuqf=   
   d5LdTnwf8O2AYNcRIs-Zjse8BFCzyatxNw4qKsoqYAmfCpg$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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