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   FOUS11 KWBC 011800   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   100 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Feb 02 2026 - 00Z Thu Feb 05 2026   
      
   ...Northern Plains through the Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   A shortwave on the upstream side of an amplified trough (500mb   
   heights below the 1st percentile according to NAEFS) will dig   
   southeast from Saskatchewan while a secondary shortwave deepens   
   into a closed low over Ontario. Together, these features will drive   
   a surface cold front eastward from the Northern Plains to the Great   
   Lakes D1 before continuing into the Ohio Valley D2. The overlapping   
   ascent between height falls/PVA and low-level convergence, along   
   with modest frontogenesis and subtle WAA will result in an axis of   
   light to at times moderate snow, with the heaviest likely occurring   
   in response to lake enhancement east of Lake Michigan and across   
   the U.P. in the NW snow belts. WPC probabilities are modest overall   
   as available moisture is limited, but locally as much as 4" of snow   
   is possible (10-30%) across the U.P. and far NW L.P., with less   
   than 2" expected elsewhere. Additionally, some light freezing rain   
   is also possible driven by dryness within the DGZ, and WPC   
   probabilities for 0.01+" of ice are 10-30% across portions of the   
   Dakotas D1.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic...=20   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   A fast moving shortwave diving out of Alberta will drop southeast   
   around the western CONUS high and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley   
   Tuesday morning. This shortwave will amplify, at least subtly, as   
   it translates to the southeast, maintaining a positive tilt but   
   interacting with a cold front digging across the Ohio Valley. At   
   the same time, a subtropical jet streak draped along the Gulf Coast   
   will gradually intensity in response to the trough amplification,   
   and begin to pivot poleward, with the response to this evolution   
   being a surge in moisture lifting out of the Gulf noted by a strung   
   out theta-e ridge from the FL Panhandle into the Mid-Atlantic. This   
   moisture return will be aided by at least modest WAA, and the   
   guidance has trended upward just a bit in its QPF potential, and   
   has shifted northward somewhat as well.   
      
   The WAA lifting isentropically atop the cold front into the colder   
   airmass should result in a swath of light to moderate snowfall,   
   although locally heavier rates are possible due focused fgen into   
   the deepening DGZ, and this is reflected by significant spread in   
   the latest WSE plumes, despite a focus of mostly light snowfall   
   amounts. Current WPC probabilities are low (10-30%) D2 for at least   
   2 inches across the Central Appalachians of WV (where upslope   
   enhancement is likely), and moderate (30-50%) in that same area D3   
   suggesting localized totals of 4" are possible. Elsewhere, WPC   
   probabilities suggest moderate risk (30-70%) for more than 1 inch=20   
   across the lower Ohio Valley and a 10-30% for similar accumulations into   
   the Mid- Atlantic states including Washington, D.C.   
      
   Some light freezing rain is also possible with this wave as it   
   swings eastward, mostly due to loss of cloud ice vs warm nose   
   development, which could result in a swath of ice accretion above   
   0.01" (10-30% chance) from western KY/TN into VA/NC. Any ice is   
   hazardous, but this could be more problematic than usual due to   
   continued recovery efforts from the recent winter storms.   
      
      
   ...Pacific Northwest...   
   Day 1...   
      
   A modest Pacific jet streak will lift northeast atop a west coast   
   ridge Monday, bringing with it a brief period of IVT exceeding the   
   90th climatological percentile according to NAEFS. A warm front   
   will push onshore and lift northeast concurrently with this jet   
   streak, leading to a brief period of enhanced WAA/precipitation   
   before snow levels climb rapidly into D2. This will result in a   
   period of rain and snow across the Washington Cascades, and   
   although snow level forecasts are generally above pass level, a few   
   inches of snow is possible between 3000-4000 ft before turning to=20   
   rain. WPC probabilities for 4+ inches of snow are above 70% only in   
   the higher Washington Cascades, but a few slushy inches of=20   
   accumulation is forecast at Stevens Pass leading to hazardous   
   travel Monday afternoon.   
      
   Weiss   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!9YRGIGSlDRwz1Kt4s7H_JQxQxrQrLi-hlxXkhTcc2PeqV=   
   OUwi_taivHgsFXvEnCrMLHMjTJRc9mduyxC6l5q8VK4ssU$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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