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   596    
   AXNT20 KNHC 011132   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sun Feb 1 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from    
   the low pressure to 31N71W and southwestward to east central Cuba.   
   Gale force winds are affecting the waters outside the storm    
   conditions north of about 24N. Seas peaking to around 28 ft are    
   expected over the NW water through late tonight. Seas of 12 ft    
   and greater cover the waters north of about 26N and between 60W   
   and 80W. The storm force winds are forecast to lift north of the    
   area by early this evening, with the gale force winds diminishing    
   late tonight into early Mon. The cold front will sweep across the    
   forecast waters through Mon night, then slow down and weaken as it   
   moves southeastward across the eastern waters Tue before stalling   
   and weakening to a trough that shifts westward Wed through Thu.    
   Seas across the forecast domain will slowly subside starting at    
   midweek as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward    
   near 29N. Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin,   
   including outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones,   
   due to the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and    
   associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts    
   issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  and   
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php   
   for more information on both events.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Guinea    
   coast near Kamsar, then reaches southwestward to 03N22W, where it    
   transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W to 02N40W and to the coast of    
   Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within    
   60 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 29W, and within 30 nm    
   north of the ITCZ between 40W-50W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building    
   across the area and the recent cold front now well southeast of    
   the Gulf is bring near gale northwest to north winds east of 89W,   
   while fresh to strong north winds are between 89W and 95W. Gale    
   force northwest winds of 25 to 35 are near the NE Gulf coast    
   region. Both buoy and altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 10   
   to 16 ft S of 27N east of 91W, and seas of 8 to 12 ft S of 27N    
   between 91W and 95W. Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere west of   
   91W. The arctic air mass infiltrating the basin is leading    
   to the production of broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds east   
   of about 93W. Overcast low stratus type clouds and fog patches    
   are evident to the southwest of a line from 25N97.5W to 20N94.5W.   
      
   For the forecast, the seas over the eastern Gulf will subside to    
   8 to 12 ft today as the winds there diminish. Winds and seas    
   elsewhere will diminish from NW to SE across the Gulf through    
   tonight as the high pressure begins to shift eastward across the    
   northern Gulf. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf   
   Wed, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed    
   afternoon, and from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of    
   Campeche by early Thu afternoon, then to SE of the basin by early    
   Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are   
   expected behind this next frontal system.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...    
      
   A strong arctic cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N81W    
   and to along the northern coast of Honduras to just inland    
   southern Belize. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds and    
   rough to very rough seas are found behind the boundary. To the    
   east, a trough extends from eastern eastern Hispaniola to 15N74W    
   and to northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong northerly winds and    
   rough seas are evident between the trough and cold front. Moderate   
   to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the    
   eastern Caribbean and south of 13N between the aforementioned    
   trough and Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and    
   slight to moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, the aforementioned front will overtake the    
   trough this morning as it reaches from near Windward Passage to    
   near southern Panama, and reach from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by   
   this evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto    
   Rico to the northwest section of Venezuela Mon and Mon night.    
   Strong to near gale force north winds and rough seas are expected    
   behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong northwest to    
   north winds will prevail roughly west of a line from the Virgin    
   Islands to NE Colombia to central Cuba along with seas to near 12    
   ft. These winds and seas will likely diminish in coverage on Wed    
   and further on Thu as another cold front approaches the    
   northwestern Caribbean.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for details on ongoing    
   storm conditions for sections of the western Atlantic.   
      
   Outside of the Storm Warning area, a cold front enters the north-   
   central Atlantic waters near 31N39W and continues southwestward to   
   26N52W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead   
   of the front to 30W and north of 29N. The remainder of the basin   
   is under the influence of a 1025 mb high center located near    
   28N28W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas    
   are found south of a line from Morocco to the Leeward Islands.    
   Moderate to fresh southeast winds and rough seas are also evident    
   from 20N and 25N and between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or    
   weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, please see the Special Features section.   
      
   $$   
   Aguirre   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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