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   FOUS11 KWBC 311936   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   236 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sun Feb 01 2026 - 00Z Wed Feb 04 2026   
      
      
   ...Southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, & Southern New England...=20   
   Day 1...   
      
   ...A major winter storm will produce heavy snowfall across the   
   southern Mid-Atlantiuc and blizzard conditions along the North   
   Carolina coast through tonight and into Sunday morning...   
      
   The major winter storm is unfolding with periods of snow, falling=20   
   heavily at times, from the southern Appalachians and eastern GA on=20   
   east through the Carolinas and into far southern VA. This morning,=20   
   the 850mb low has formed and is tracking towards southern SC with a   
   tongue of rich 850mb theta-e air rotating around the northern and=20   
   western flanks of the low. As the low strengthens, so does the=20   
   easterly fetch supplying Atlantic moisture, resulting in a=20   
   broadening shield of snow from as far west as the Atlanta metro to=20   
   even as far south as Savannah, GA today. As strong 500mb PVA moves   
   in aloft, a band of heavy snow is likely to unfold over eastern GA   
   that could then pivot over southern SC, including the Charleston=20   
   metro area. The heaviest snow rates are likely to occur north of=20   
   the 850mb low track where easterly low-level winds are enhanced via   
   upslope flow from the hills near Charlotte on west into the=20   
   southern Appalachians. Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are likely=20   
   there, resulting in dangerous to even impossible travel conditions.   
   WPC probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for additional=20   
   snowfall totals >4" from Charlotte on south into central SC and=20   
   eastward to northeast SC and the Cape Fear Tidewater region.=20   
      
   Central NC and southern VA are caught between the impressive=20   
   dynamics closer to the highly anomalous upper-low to the south and   
   west, and the developing coastal low that will rapidly strengthen=20   
   east ot the Outer Banks today and into tonight. Guidance has come into   
   better agreement on a depression in the expected QPF footprint=20   
   around the Raleigh-Durham area on north and east along I-85 into=20   
   south-central VA. While totals have trended down, it is=20   
   exceptionally cold with highs unlikely to get above the mid 20s=20   
   today. Plus, occasionally gusty winds this afternoon and evening=20   
   will cause reduced visibilities and blowing snow on roads. WPC=20   
   probabilities still show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for=20   
   snowfall totals >2" in these areas, with better odds for >4" on=20   
   southward along I- 95 and I-40. Snow will have no trouble sticking=20   
   and travel will be hazardous through this evening and into tonight.   
   Expect slick roads to persist into Sunday as temperatures will=20   
   struggle to get above freezing, and any melting that does occur on=20   
   Sunday on roadways has a high chance to refreeze Sunday night and=20   
   Monday morning.   
      
   Farther east into eastern NC and southeast VA, the storm system   
   along the coast will rapidly strengthen by as much as 40mb in 24   
   hours. Not only will a band of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates ensue this   
   afternoon and into tonight, but wind will ramp up in intensity   
   significantly, especially along the Outer Banks and on north/east   
   facings shores of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Steepening   
   lapse rates as the mid-upper level low approaches the warmer shelf   
   waters will also support some instability in the 850-500mb layer,=20   
   allowing for thundersnow to be a potential phenomenon for those in=20   
   eastern NC. Snow will continue over the eastern tidal areas of NC=20   
   and southeast VA through early Sunday morning, but snow should=20   
   taper off by midday Sunday as the powerful winter storm races east=20   
   into the west Atlantic. WPC probabilities show moderate- to-high=20   
   chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >6" from the Myrtle Beach area   
   and the Cape Fear region on north through much of eastern NC.=20   
   Given the robust 1-2"/hr rates in eastern NC, there is a low-to-   
   moderate chances (30-50%) for localized snowfall totals to surpass=20   
   12" by the time this event concludes late Sunday morning. As=20   
   mentioned above, the bitter cold in wake of the storm will keep=20   
   travel on all roadways across eastern and southern NC treacherous=20   
   into the start of the work/school week.=20   
      
   Lastly, trends have been to gradually decrease snowfall totals in   
   southeast MA, although some measurable snow and blowing snow is   
   likely over Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and the MA Capes. WPC   
   probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-60%) for snowfall   
   totals >4" here, with Nantucket sporting the highest chances for   
   >6" given their closer proximity to the winter storm on Sunday.   
      
   Key Messages are in effect for this storm, and are linked below=20   
   (Key Message #2).=20   
      
      
   ...Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   An advancing warm front associated with low pressure over southern   
   Canada is tracking across the North Central U.S. today will=20   
   continue eastward, producing light snow and minor freezing rain in=20   
   the Northern Plains as milder Pacific air overruns the cold=20   
   surface. The warm front marches eastward Sunday into the Upper   
   Midwest and Great Lakes, then into Michigan and the eastern Great=20   
   Lakes Monday. Amounts will be light, generally 1-3", as the system=20   
   remains progressive. Another round of light snow arrives in the   
   northern High Plains on Monday and ending Monday night, but totals   
   are likely to be below 3 inches.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley & Central Appalachians...   
   Day 3...=20   
      
   The shortwave trough responsible for light snow in the northern   
   High Plains on Monday dives south into the Middle MS Valley early   
   Tuesday morning and races into the OH Valley by Tuesday afternoon.   
   Weak 850-700mb WAA and a tongue of 700-300mb moisture aloft will be   
   available aloft and will allow for snowfall. Most snowfall amounts will   
   be generally a coating-2", although the central Appalachians in=20   
   eastern WV have low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall=20   
   amounts >2". This weak feature has a chance to produce light snow=20   
   in portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_FsdXoLtiJKgZ9SEV8EVy4DoOUHafubqMkLCzThr-B36g=   
   9DWF1LlOJ9JGlBYJP21r3EHc_EHIKUVPBZmdQbPfoMGK1g$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_FsdXoLtiJKgZ9SEV8EVy4DoOUHafubqMkLCzThr-B36g=   
   9DWF1LlOJ9JGlBYJP21r3EHc_EHIKUVPBZmdQbPrJyhzgw$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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